TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Filip Mandrysz vs Jakub Lysek 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117711117118––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:37 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeFilip Mandrysz to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Mandrysz above · Jakub Lysek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 73 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Filip Mandrysz at 54.1%
73 points played in total.
H2H Filip Mandrysz 15–11 Jakub Lysek Jakub Lysek has won 11 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:3754.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Mandrysz
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-11 in 26
Mandrysz
Correct
gap of 4 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mandrysz 1385 vs Lysek 1317
Mandrysz
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mandrysz 40% vs Lysek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mandrysz 60% vs Lysek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mandrysz -3 · Lysek +1
Mandrysz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Mandrysz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mandrysz form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMandrysz 1.727 / Lysek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Mandrysz)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13235400
Mandrysz1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 75 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it73% 49 of 67
Lysek2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 49 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back28% 17 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMandrysz8wins
AwayLysek2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMandrysz leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMandrysz85.7%6 of 7
AwayLysek33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mandrysz7Lysek3n = 10Mandrysz took 7 of 10
S2Mandrysz6Lysek4n = 10Mandrysz took 6 of 10
S3Mandrysz6Lysek4n = 10Mandrysz took 6 of 10
S4Mandrysz4Lysek5n = 9Lysek took 5 of 9
S5Mandrysz4Lysek1n = 5Mandrysz took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMandryszLysekM − LBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.937.9+4.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMandryszLysekBasisWin rate · lifetime237 / 467 vs 152 / 33650.8%45.2%237 / 467 vs 152 / 336Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MandryszMandrysz 1.73/Lysek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Mandrysz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mandrysz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 06:40F. Mandrysz4011711113J. Lysek33711781
WSep 30 · 13:40F. Mandrysz531111128113J. Lysek4799141142
LSep 25 · 15:10F. Mandrysz27461161J. Lysek4111118113
WJul 15 · 15:15F. Mandrysz50911118113J. Lysek3411611152
LJul 10 · 09:15F. Mandrysz45111141272J. Lysek53981114113
WJul 10 · 06:40F. Mandrysz40211511113J. Lysek4411811682
WJun 27 · 17:20F. Mandrysz50118119113J. Lysek4151161182
WJun 27 · 15:15F. Mandrysz331111113J. Lysek187740
WJun 26 · 10:10F. Mandrysz4111711123J. Lysek304115101
WJun 25 · 10:15F. Mandrysz4011115133J. Lysek389711111
F. Mandrysz10
WOct 3 · 07:40F. Mandrysz1.8041L. Snr1.9100LOct 3 · 05:40F. Mandrysz1.57981181L. Stempak2.2511115113LOct 2 · 17:10F. Mandrysz9.10541281P. Sturma1.03111110113LOct 2 · 15:40F. Mandrysz2.6391591172J. Jnr1.441113116113WOct 2 · 14:40F. Mandrysz1.6151411123P. Sturma2.2011129101WOct 2 · 13:40F. Mandrysz—1111113N. Makara—6560WSep 30 · 17:08L. Zustina1.91119461F. Mandrysz1.8061111113WSep 30 · 15:40F. Mandrysz1.831113211113M. Sobota1.8371511892LSep 30 · 14:40F. Mandrysz1.916870L. Zustina1.801111113WSep 30 · 13:40F. Mandrysz1.731111128113J. Lysek2.0099141142
J. Lysek10
WOct 3 · 06:10L. Snr1.83151011111J. Lysek1.8317129133LSep 30 · 16:38M. Sobota1.6191111123J. Lysek2.201138101WSep 30 · 16:10L. Zustina1.449111161J. Lysek2.6311131113LSep 30 · 15:10J. Lysek1.8310121151M. Sobota1.8312148113LSep 30 · 13:40F. Mandrysz1.731111128113J. Lysek2.0099141142WSep 27 · 20:39J. Lysek1.7313911113J. Oleksik2.001111891WSep 27 · 20:10M. Dolezal1.4071011101J. Lysek2.7511128123WSep 27 · 19:10J. Lysek2.00121011113J. Oleksik1.731012481LSep 27 · 17:40L. Krupnik Jr1.731111113J. Lysek2.005880WSep 25 · 17:10L. Krupnik Jr1.6189100J. Lysek2.201111123
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