TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Martyniuk vs Eduard Populovskyi 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116119119––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:29 and never touched: 68.1% is still 68.1%
Graded at full timeAndrii Martyniuk to win
68.1%
68.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Martyniuk above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 57 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Andrii Martyniuk at 68.1%
57 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Martyniuk 15–9 Eduard Populovskyi Eduard Populovskyi has won 9 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:2968.1%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 1.2pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Martyniuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-9 in 24
Martyniuk
Correct
gap of 6 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martyniuk 1548 vs Populovskyi 1380
Martyniuk
Correct
both rated, 168 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martyniuk 60% vs Populovskyi 40%
Martyniuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martyniuk 60% vs Populovskyi 20%
Martyniuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Martyniuk +3 · Populovskyi -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Martyniuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartyniuk 1.444 / Populovskyi 2.625
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Martyniuk)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234502
Martyniuk1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 01)
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 67 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it95% 40 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it73% 51 of 70
Populovskyi2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 01)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 51 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back23% 21 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMartyniuk6wins
AwayPopulovskyi4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMartyniuk leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMartyniuk55.6%5 of 9
AwayPopulovskyin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martyniuk9Populovskyi1n = 10Martyniuk took 9 of 10
S2Martyniuk6Populovskyi4n = 10Martyniuk took 6 of 10
S3Martyniuk3Populovskyi7n = 10Populovskyi took 7 of 10
S4Martyniuk4Populovskyi3n = 7Martyniuk took 4 of 7
S5Martyniuk1Populovskyi2n = 3Populovskyi took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMartyniukPopulovskyiM − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match40.338.4+1.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartyniukPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime187 / 358 vs 338 / 69952.2%48.4%187 / 358 vs 338 / 699Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.436.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MartyniukMartyniuk 1.44/Populovskyi 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.1%
Martyniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Martyniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LOct 1 · 05:35A. Martyniuk3911551172E. Populovskyi49911117113
LSep 24 · 07:05A. Martyniuk47117101182E. Populovskyi50811128113
WSep 15 · 07:05A. Martyniuk4211119113E. Populovskyi36991171
LSep 13 · 06:20A. Martyniuk29114861E. Populovskyi3961111113
WAug 31 · 07:05A. Martyniuk531111812113E. Populovskyi4466111472
WAug 29 · 13:00A. Martyniuk381116113E. Populovskyi2251430
WAug 22 · 13:30A. Martyniuk341211113E. Populovskyi2810990
WJul 23 · 10:35A. Martyniuk3811115113E. Populovskyi34591191
LJul 22 · 09:35A. Martyniuk4311131091E. Populovskyi4461512113
A. Martyniuk10
WOct 3 · 16:00A. Martyniuk2.001111113S. Solomko1.739410WOct 3 · 14:30A. Martyniuk1.5711511123O. Leonenko2.258119101WOct 1 · 10:03A. Martyniuk1.6713712113O. Leonenko2.1011111081WOct 1 · 08:35O. Leonenko1.83471171A. Martyniuk1.8311116113WOct 1 · 07:35A. Martyniuk1.2511911113O. Osadchyi3.75611421LOct 1 · 06:35S. Solomko1.80114611123A. Martyniuk1.91411113102LOct 1 · 05:35A. Martyniuk1.4011551172E. Populovskyi2.75911117113WSep 28 · 11:30V. Bilobrov1.2210960A. Martyniuk4.001211113LSep 28 · 10:00A. Martyniuk2.256850A. Troyan1.571111113WSep 28 · 08:00Y. Volkov1.4091191142A. Martyniuk2.75118114113
E. Populovskyi10
LOct 3 · 15:30O. Leonenko2.00111132103E. Populovskyi1.7347111162LOct 3 · 13:30O. Osadchyi1.25131210113E. Populovskyi3.7511101291LOct 1 · 10:33E. Populovskyi3.7533100S. Solomko1.251111123LOct 1 · 09:05E. Populovskyi3.507680O. Osadchyi1.281111113LOct 1 · 08:05S. Solomko1.2891111113E. Populovskyi3.50115771WOct 1 · 07:05O. Leonenko1.802580E. Populovskyi1.911111113WOct 1 · 05:35A. Martyniuk1.4011551172E. Populovskyi2.75911117113LSep 30 · 10:30O. Osadchyi1.301111113E. Populovskyi3.408870LSep 30 · 09:30E. Populovskyi1.80118101152A. Kovalenko1.91611124113LSep 30 · 08:30E. Populovskyi2.25111131252O. Volynets1.57861114113
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