TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Martin Vilhan vs Miroslav Novotny 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Martin Vilhan
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
11136111012––––
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:26 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Novotny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Vilhan above · Miroslav Novotny below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 63 set 3, 10-12 · our read held Miroslav Novotny at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Martin Vilhan 3–2 Miroslav Novotny Miroslav Novotny has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Novotny beat Vilhan 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:2654.0%Our read50.0%to break even at 2.00
clears by 4.0pp50.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.00 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vilhan
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vilhan 1421 vs Novotny 1337
Vilhan
Wrong
both rated, 84 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vilhan 60% vs Novotny 80%
Novotny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vilhan 40% vs Novotny 90%
Novotny
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vilhan +1 · Novotny +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Novotny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVilhan 1.727 / Novotny 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Novotny)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13234033
Vilhan1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Novotny2.00
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog34% won 14 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeVilhan3wins
AwayNovotny2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderVilhan leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVilhann = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayNovotny66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vilhan2Novotny3n = 5Novotny took 3 of 5
S2Vilhan4Novotny1n = 5Vilhan took 4 of 5
S3Vilhan4Novotny1n = 5Vilhan took 4 of 5
S4Vilhan2Novotny1n = 3Vilhan took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricVilhanNovotnyV − NBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match39.235.4+3.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVilhanNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime31 / 60 vs 158 / 33651.7%47%31 / 60 vs 158 / 336Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyVilhan 1.73/Novotny 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Novotny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LOct 2 · 15:00M. Vilhan4699111162M. Novotny50111198113
WJul 4 · 18:15M. Vilhan351111133M. Novotny2687110
WMay 24 · 18:30M. Vilhan45111211113M. Novotny401310891
LMay 7 · 14:00M. Vilhan376118121M. Novotny3911311143
WJan 3 · 15:30M. Vilhan331111113M. Novotny226970
M. Vilhan10
WOct 2 · 16:00M. Stefek1.679950M. Vilhan2.101111113LOct 2 · 15:00M. Novotny2.38111198113M. Vilhan1.5399111162WOct 2 · 14:30M. Vilhan1.61119118173M. Barta2.20811611152LJul 13 · 17:00M. Vilhan2.2011811982M. Longin1.61911811113WJul 13 · 16:30M. Vilhan1.67131162113P. Vojtech2.10118111172LJul 13 · 15:00M. Vilhan1.838560V. Nohejl1.831111113WJul 13 · 14:00M. Longin1.4075100M. Vilhan2.751111123LJul 10 · 21:06J. Moravek—1111113M. Vilhan—9180LJul 10 · 20:00T. Andrle1.571212113M. Vilhan2.25101060LJul 10 · 19:00J. Moravek1.671111113M. Vilhan2.109930
M. Novotny10
WOct 2 · 16:30M. Novotny1.501111113M. Barta2.508280WOct 2 · 15:00M. Novotny2.38111198113M. Vilhan1.5399111162LOct 2 · 14:00M. Stefek1.911314113M. Novotny1.80111290WSep 30 · 21:30M. Novotny1.651310118113P. Bruzek2.10111251182WSep 30 · 20:30P. Berdych2.105680M. Novotny1.671111113WSep 30 · 19:30M. Novotny1.6111118113M. Barta2.20571191WSep 30 · 18:30P. Bruzek1.44613761M. Novotny2.63111111113WSep 30 · 17:30M. Novotny1.30111011113J. Grohsgott3.10712651WSep 30 · 16:00J. Grohsgott3.006101171M. Novotny1.3611125113WSep 30 · 15:00M. Syroha1.8041111462M. Novotny1.91118811113
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