TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jiri Melichar vs Jakub Dvorak 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911119116118––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:49 and never touched: 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeJakub Dvorak to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Melichar above · Jakub Dvorak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 76 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Jakub Dvorak at 57.4%
76 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Melichar 7–13 Jakub Dvorak Jiri Melichar has won 7 of their 20 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:4957.4%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 2.6pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Dvorak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-13 in 20
Dvorak
Wrong
gap of 6 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melichar 1494 vs Dvorak 1507
Dvorak
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melichar 20% vs Dvorak 60%
Dvorak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melichar 50% vs Dvorak 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melichar -3 · Dvorak +1
Melichar
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Dvorak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melichar form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelichar 2.10 / Dvorak 1.666
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Dvorak)-2.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13232447
Melichar2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 28)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog64% won 9 of 14
Down 0–1, comes back57% 4 of 7
Dvorak1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 11 days ago (Sep 21) · back after a break
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 27 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it78% 21 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelichar5wins
AwayDvorak5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelichar100%3 of 3
AwayDvorak71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melichar3Dvorak7n = 10Dvorak took 7 of 10
S2Melichar3Dvorak7n = 10Dvorak took 7 of 10
S3Melichar5Dvorak5n = 10split evenly
S4Melichar4Dvorak2n = 6Melichar took 4 of 6
S5Melichar2Dvorak1n = 3Melichar took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelicharDvorakM − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.236.9−2.7per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelicharDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime40 / 72 vs 167 / 34155.6%49%40 / 72 vs 167 / 341Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.636.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakMelichar 2.10/Dvorak 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.4%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Melichar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 15:55J. Melichar227780J. Dvorak331111113
LAug 31 · 18:30J. Melichar62220J. Dvorak331111113
LAug 31 · 17:25J. Melichar2556140J. Dvorak381111163
WAug 16 · 15:25J. Melichar45121111113J. Dvorak32147741
WAug 13 · 17:30J. Melichar48371116113J. Dvorak54111191492
WAug 13 · 16:50J. Melichar50118119113J. Dvorak3961171142
LAug 5 · 18:23J. Melichar195680J. Dvorak331111113
WAug 5 · 16:55J. Melichar4211119113J. Dvorak24331171
LJul 31 · 17:54J. Melichar45711111062J. Dvorak50117912113
WJul 31 · 16:55J. Melichar4011711113J. Dvorak33711691
J. Melichar10
WOct 2 · 16:20A. Kral2.255111081J. Melichar1.5711712113WOct 2 · 15:50D. Sykora1.91781161J. Melichar1.8011115113LSep 28 · 18:40J. Kulveit1.8311114113J. Melichar1.83591161LSep 28 · 16:55O. Varecka2.00411117113J. Melichar1.7311821172LSep 28 · 16:25J. Kulveit2.1011119113J. Melichar1.67651181WSep 28 · 15:25J. Melichar1.441212113R. Jamrich2.63101080LSep 6 · 18:03J. Melichar1.44111011682Z. Zahradka2.63712811113WSep 6 · 17:25J. Melichar1.44117117113Z. Zahradka2.6381151192LSep 6 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.831111113J. Melichar1.837780WSep 6 · 15:25R. Jamrich3.00118751J. Melichar1.3691111113
J. Dvorak10
LOct 2 · 15:20A. Kral2.1081111123J. Dvorak1.671188101WSep 21 · 18:00J. Dvorak1.91113114113M. Dvorak1.8091161172LSep 21 · 16:50J. Dvorak1.804119101M. Dvorak1.9111511123WSep 21 · 15:20J. Cerny1.83311641J. Dvorak1.8311211113WSep 21 · 14:50D. Tichy1.8310970J. Dvorak1.831211113LSep 19 · 10:04J. Dvorak1.619850R. Jamrich2.201111113LSep 19 · 09:25J. Dvorak1.7361161192A. Kral2.00116117113LSep 19 · 07:55J. Kulveit1.6714117113J. Dvorak2.101291151WSep 19 · 07:25R. Jamrich2.0041111892J. Dvorak1.73114711113WSep 6 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.831111113J. Melichar1.837780
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J. Dvorak
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