TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Zdenek Zahradka vs Milan Dvorak 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12141412118114––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:49 and never touched: 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeMilan Dvorak to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZdenek Zahradka above · Milan Dvorak below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 86 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Milan Dvorak at 58.6%
86 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Zahradka 22–22 Milan Dvorak Dead even across their 44 meetings.
Last 10 · 3–7Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:4958.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 1.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Dvorak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
22-22 in 44
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zahradka 1356 vs Dvorak 1531
Dvorak
Wrong
both rated, 176 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zahradka 20% vs Dvorak 80%
Dvorak
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zahradka 30% vs Dvorak 80%
Dvorak
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zahradka -4 · Dvorak -1
Zahradka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Dvorak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvorak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZahradka 2.10 / Dvorak 1.666
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Dvorak)-1.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13232202
Zahradka2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 29)
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 71 of 204
Down 0–1, comes back12% 14 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 63
Dvorak1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 29)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite46% won 27 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it59% 17 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZahradka3wins
AwayDvorak7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDvorak leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZahradka40%2 of 5
AwayDvorak80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zahradka5Dvorak5n = 10split evenly
S2Zahradka2Dvorak8n = 10Dvorak took 8 of 10
S3Zahradka2Dvorak8n = 10Dvorak took 8 of 10
S4Zahradka5Dvorak3n = 8Zahradka took 5 of 8
S5Zahradka2Dvorak2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricZahradkaDvorakZ − DBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.943.1−6.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZahradkaDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime393 / 805 vs 167 / 34548.8%48.4%393 / 805 vs 167 / 345Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakZahradka 2.10/Dvorak 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.6%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zahradka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 29 · 16:55Z. Zahradka3731151172M. Dvorak45115117113
LSep 24 · 17:55Z. Zahradka2010730M. Dvorak341211113
LSep 24 · 14:20Z. Zahradka4911591682M. Dvorak492111114113
LSep 16 · 14:20Z. Zahradka36118891M. Dvorak4291111113
LSep 4 · 15:25Z. Zahradka336111151M. Dvorak4411913113
LAug 17 · 18:00Z. Zahradka421214971M. Dvorak48101611113
WAug 17 · 14:20Z. Zahradka42116311113M. Dvorak4691111782
LJul 23 · 16:20Z. Zahradka1422100M. Dvorak341111123
WJun 30 · 14:20Z. Zahradka531081311113M. Dvorak52121111992
WJun 24 · 15:50Z. Zahradka43111011113M. Dvorak37912791
Z. Zahradka10
WOct 2 · 16:55Z. Zahradka1.8011411113J. Hendrych1.91811351LOct 2 · 15:55Z. Zahradka2.6368100P. Moravec1.441111123LSep 29 · 18:00D. Tichy1.611211113Z. Zahradka2.2010490LSep 29 · 16:55M. Dvorak1.73115117113Z. Zahradka2.0031151172LSep 29 · 16:25J. Cerny1.57116711113Z. Zahradka2.2581111782LSep 29 · 15:25Z. Zahradka2.10111311372D. Tichy1.67715711113WSep 27 · 09:59A. Kral1.7356120Z. Zahradka2.001111143LSep 27 · 09:25Z. Zahradka1.838411101A. Kral1.8311118123WSep 27 · 07:55J. Kulveit1.5351111992Z. Zahradka2.38117711113LSep 27 · 07:25R. Jamrich1.9111811113Z. Zahradka1.80711851
M. Dvorak10
WOct 2 · 17:25P. Moravec1.73812151M. Dvorak2.00111011113WOct 2 · 16:25M. Dvorak1.831111113J. Hendrych1.837570LSep 29 · 18:30M. Dvorak1.91413111162J. Cerny1.80111546113WSep 29 · 16:55M. Dvorak1.73115117113Z. Zahradka2.0031151172WSep 29 · 15:55M. Dvorak1.571111113D. Tichy2.257730WSep 29 · 14:55M. Dvorak1.91111169113J. Cerny1.8098111142WSep 24 · 17:55M. Dvorak1.851211113Z. Zahradka1.8510730WSep 24 · 16:50P. Moravec1.6711812752M. Dvorak2.108111011113WSep 24 · 15:50M. Dvorak1.911111113J. Hendrych1.802530WSep 24 · 14:20Z. Zahradka1.8311591682M. Dvorak1.832111114113
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