TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vitalii Mukhin vs Pavlo Ostrovskyi 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1176111210911116
Pavlo Ostrovskyi
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–2Last 5Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:23 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavlo Ostrovskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVitalii Mukhin above · Pavlo Ostrovskyi below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 94 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Pavlo Ostrovskyi at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Mukhin 1–0 Pavlo Ostrovskyi Pavlo Ostrovskyi has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2354.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Ostrovskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Mukhin 1330 vs Ostrovskyi 1220
Mukhin
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mukhin 80% vs Ostrovskyi 60%
Mukhin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mukhin 70% vs Ostrovskyi 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mukhin +3 · Ostrovskyi +1
Mukhin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Ostrovskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mukhin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMukhin 1.909 / Ostrovskyi 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Ostrovskyi)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13230290
Mukhin1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog31% won 32 of 105
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 38
Ostrovskyi1.80
60%won 3 of 5 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 2 of 5
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMukhin1wins
AwayOstrovskyi0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderMukhin leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMukhinOstrovskyiM − OBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match49.045.0+4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMukhinOstrovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime184 / 353 vs 3 / 652.1%50%184 / 353 vs 3 / 6Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OstrovskyiMukhin 1.91/Ostrovskyi 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Ostrovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mukhin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 2 · 06:35V. Mukhin49116129113P. Ostrovskyi45711101162
V. Mukhin10
WOct 2 · 05:05V. Mukhin2.00117311113M. Khalenko1.7351111792WSep 30 · 11:05V. Mukhin2.38611511113O. Miklukha1.5311511862WSep 30 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.201111113V. Stukalov4.338840LSep 30 · 08:05V. Mukhin2.201171011V. Kondratenko1.6161112113WSep 30 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.531111113S. Semenets2.388380LSep 30 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.50881161S. Hovorunets2.5011119113WSep 29 · 16:40V. Mukhin2.5010111110113V. Kondratenko1.5012881272WSep 29 · 15:10V. Mukhin1.221111113V. Stukalov4.001750WSep 29 · 13:40V. Mukhin1.571111133S. Hovorunets2.2597110LSep 29 · 12:10V. Mukhin1.5061221162S. Semenets2.501110119113
P. Ostrovskyi5
WOct 2 · 05:35V. Stukalov1.836740P. Ostrovskyi1.831111113LSep 27 · 17:40S. Osipov2.001211113P. Ostrovskyi1.7310570WSep 27 · 16:10P. Ostrovskyi2.10971112113V. Kondratenko1.67111151072WSep 27 · 14:10O. Miklukha1.83791131P. Ostrovskyi1.8311118113LSep 27 · 12:10V. Varchenko2.0011115113P. Ostrovskyi1.73781181
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.