TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Hryhoriy Oliynyk vs Oleh Maksymkiv 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012119911711––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:20 and never touched: 54.6% is still 54.6%
Graded at full timeHryhoriy Oliynyk to win
54.6%
54.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingHryhoriy Oliynyk above · Oleh Maksymkiv below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 80 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Hryhoriy Oliynyk at 54.6%
80 points played in total.
H2H Hryhoriy Oliynyk 11–4 Oleh Maksymkiv Oleh Maksymkiv has won 4 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:2054.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 5.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Oliynyk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-4 in 15
Oliynyk
Wrong
gap of 7 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oliynyk 1174 vs Maksymkiv 1242
Maksymkiv
Correct
both rated, 69 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oliynyk 20% vs Maksymkiv 80%
Maksymkiv
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oliynyk 30% vs Maksymkiv 70%
Maksymkiv
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oliynyk -2 · Maksymkiv +3
Maksymkiv
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Oliynyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksymkiv form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOliynyk 1.666 / Maksymkiv 2.10
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Oliynyk)-5.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13228989
Oliynyk1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 30)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 34 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it85% 22 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it70% 26 of 37
Maksymkiv2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 01)
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 55 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back18% 15 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOliynyk6wins
AwayMaksymkiv4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderOliynyk leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOliynyk80%4 of 5
AwayMaksymkiv60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oliynyk5Maksymkiv5n = 10split evenly
S2Oliynyk7Maksymkiv3n = 10Oliynyk took 7 of 10
S3Oliynyk7Maksymkiv3n = 10Oliynyk took 7 of 10
S4Oliynyk2Maksymkiv2n = 4split evenly
S5Oliynyk1Maksymkiv2n = 3Maksymkiv took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOliynykMaksymkivO − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.430.4+5.0per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOliynykMaksymkivBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 234 vs 399 / 76549.6%52.2%116 / 234 vs 399 / 765Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.337.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OliynykOliynyk 1.67/Maksymkiv 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.6%
Oliynyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Maksymkiv won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 16:55H. Oliynyk24101130O. Maksymkiv361213113
WSep 25 · 05:55H. Oliynyk331111113O. Maksymkiv175840
LSep 9 · 07:25H. Oliynyk4011115492O. Maksymkiv44741111113
LSep 7 · 08:55H. Oliynyk259880O. Maksymkiv331111113
WAug 27 · 12:55H. Oliynyk3741111113O. Maksymkiv28113681
WAug 13 · 13:55H. Oliynyk331111113O. Maksymkiv219840
WJul 15 · 08:25H. Oliynyk331111113O. Maksymkiv137330
WJul 1 · 05:55H. Oliynyk44651111113O. Maksymkiv4111117482
LJun 24 · 04:25H. Oliynyk50711117142O. Maksymkiv50115711163
WJun 17 · 08:55H. Oliynyk351311113O. Maksymkiv2111550
H. Oliynyk10
LOct 2 · 14:25H. Oliynyk1.575880A. Nikolenko2.251111113LSep 30 · 17:55O. Maslovskyi2.631111123H. Oliynyk1.4474100LSep 30 · 16:55H. Oliynyk1.40101130O. Maksymkiv2.751213113WSep 30 · 15:55H. Oliynyk1.17911511113M. Treschetka4.5011811682LSep 30 · 14:25H. Oliynyk1.5311811462A. Nikolenko2.38911811113LSep 30 · 12:25H. Oliynyk1.6711911642M. Dunas2.10911911113WSep 28 · 10:25M. Treschetka4.338540H. Oliynyk1.201111113WSep 28 · 09:25H. Oliynyk1.611111113O. Maslovskyi2.208040LSep 28 · 08:25H. Oliynyk1.4014760V. Salivonchyk2.751611113LSep 28 · 06:55H. Oliynyk1.4411951252A. Nikolenko2.639111110113
O. Maksymkiv10
WOct 2 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi4.5094111172O. Maksymkiv1.17111196113WOct 1 · 11:25O. Maslovskyi4.009790O. Maksymkiv1.221111113WOct 1 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv1.61651111113M. Dunas2.2011116382WOct 1 · 07:55A. Nikolenko3.25710111192O. Maksymkiv1.33111256113LOct 1 · 05:55M. Treschetka1.4491111113O. Maksymkiv2.63115781WOct 1 · 04:55V. Salivonchyk1.91991191O. Maksymkiv1.8011119113LSep 30 · 18:55O. Maksymkiv1.3310890M. Dunas3.251211113WSep 30 · 16:55H. Oliynyk1.40101130O. Maksymkiv2.751213113WSep 30 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi4.0049170O. Maksymkiv1.221111193LSep 30 · 13:55O. Maksymkiv2.63611371M. Treschetka1.4411611113
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