TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Miroslav Vana vs Adam Dvoracek 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10121311118611115
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:58 and never touched: 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Vana to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Vana above · Adam Dvoracek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 98 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Miroslav Vana at 58.1%
98 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Vana 8–5 Adam Dvoracek Adam Dvoracek has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5858.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vana
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-5 in 13
Vana
Correct
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vana 1500 vs Dvoracek 1468
Vana
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vana 60% vs Dvoracek 80%
Dvoracek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vana 50% vs Dvoracek 80%
Dvoracek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vana +2 · Dvoracek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Vana) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvoracek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVana 1.615 / Dvoracek 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Vana)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13228920
Vana1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 30)
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 53 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it91% 21 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it77% 39 of 51
Dvoracek2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 57 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back28% 20 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back14% 5 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVana6wins
AwayDvoracek4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVana leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVana66.7%4 of 6
AwayDvoracek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vana6Dvoracek4n = 10Vana took 6 of 10
S2Vana4Dvoracek6n = 10Dvoracek took 6 of 10
S3Vana4Dvoracek6n = 10Dvoracek took 6 of 10
S4Vana2Dvoracek5n = 7Dvoracek took 5 of 7
S5Vana4Dvoracek0n = 4Vana took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVanaDvoracekV − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.538.5+4.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVanaDvoracekBasisWin rate · lifetime190 / 355 vs 250 / 47853.5%52.3%190 / 355 vs 250 / 478Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VanaVana 1.61/Dvoracek 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Vana · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vana won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 06:00M. Vana511013116113A. Dvoracek47121181152
WAug 28 · 17:14M. Vana47681111113A. Dvoracek3911116382
WAug 28 · 15:00M. Vana521111109113A. Dvoracek3826121172
WAug 15 · 11:00M. Vana4111118113A. Dvoracek32681171
LAug 3 · 12:23M. Vana4411910141A. Dvoracek4781112163
WAug 3 · 09:15M. Vana331111113A. Dvoracek124350
LJul 30 · 10:00M. Vana2881190A. Dvoracek351113113
LJul 24 · 11:00M. Vana45111410101A. Dvoracek4551612123
WJul 20 · 10:00M. Vana55169117123A. Dvoracek541411811102
LJun 26 · 09:45M. Vana2989120A. Dvoracek361111143
M. Vana10
WOct 2 · 07:30F. Husek2.2010670M. Vana1.611211113LOct 2 · 07:00M. Vana1.91101211592O. Plyska1.801210911113WSep 30 · 20:58M. Vana1.7381113113O. Karpisek2.001191181WSep 30 · 20:00M. Drabek1.913119141M. Vana1.8011611163LSep 30 · 19:00O. Karpisek2.201111126113M. Vana1.6179141182WSep 30 · 17:30F. Schmidtmayer2.2011512572M. Vana1.612111011113LSep 24 · 20:34M. Vana1.4012920M. Barton2.751411113LSep 24 · 20:00M. Drabek2.10781111113M. Vana1.6711114652LSep 24 · 19:00J. Marhol2.2012119113M. Vana1.611081171WSep 24 · 17:30M. Barton2.10451171M. Vana1.6711116113
A. Dvoracek10
WOct 2 · 06:30F. Husek1.53661261A. Dvoracek2.38111110113WOct 1 · 13:00A. Dvoracek1.44911116113M. Melisek2.6311761162WOct 1 · 12:00A. Dvoracek1.401111123J. Jnr2.7533100LOct 1 · 10:30J. Puk2.3881111113A. Dvoracek1.53116731WOct 1 · 10:00M. Melisek2.63111951A. Dvoracek1.4451111113WSep 30 · 08:38A. Dvoracek1.5711116133P. Cizek2.255711111WSep 30 · 07:30P. Cizek2.257711101A. Dvoracek1.5711114123WSep 30 · 07:00A. Dvoracek1.73118118123D. Sabuka2.00811611102WSep 30 · 06:00A. Dvoracek1.615111112113M. Obraz2.2011741452WSep 26 · 16:59J. Hanacek1.831181391A. Dvoracek1.8371115113
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