TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jaroslav Schwan vs Jaroslav Neuwirth Snr 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11471111131171210
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:29 and never touched: 57.6% is still 57.6%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Neuwirth Snr to win
57.6%
57.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaroslav Schwan above · Jaroslav Neuwirth Snr below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 9-7
Point 91 set 5, 9-7 · our read held Jaroslav Neuwirth Snr at 57.6%
91 points drawn · the score is 6 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jaroslav Schwan 1–6 Jaroslav Neuwirth Snr Jaroslav Schwan has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Schwan beat Snr 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:2957.6%Our read60.6%to break even at 1.65
short by 3.0pp60.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.65 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Snr
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Snr
Wrong
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schwan 1583 vs Snr 1613
Snr
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schwan 40% vs Snr 80%
Snr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schwan 50% vs Snr 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Schwan +2 · Snr -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Snr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Snr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchwan 2.10 / Snr 1.65
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Snr)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13227003
Schwan2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog27% won 17 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29
Snr1.65
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 46 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it78% 18 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it70% 32 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSchwan1wins
AwaySnr6wins
3 of 7 to a deciderSnr leads 6–1, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchwan25%1 of 4
AwaySnr100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schwan4Snr3n = 7Schwan took 4 of 7
S2Schwan1Snr6n = 7Snr took 6 of 7
S3Schwan2Snr5n = 7Snr took 5 of 7
S4Schwan3Snr2n = 5Schwan took 3 of 5
S5Schwan0Snr3n = 3Snr took 3 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away343%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricSchwanSnrSchwan − SnrBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match36.141.9−5.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchwanSnrBasisWin rate · lifetime146 / 309 vs 128 / 25147.3%51%146 / 309 vs 128 / 251Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.739.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SnrSchwan 2.10/Snr 1.65
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.6%
Snr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Schwan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WOct 1 · 08:00J. Schwan3711312113J. Snr337111051
LMay 26 · 16:59J. Schwan2610790J. Snr341211113
LMay 26 · 14:30J. Schwan50127911112J. Snr511011116133
LMay 21 · 10:00J. Schwan47114814102J. Snr548111112123
LMar 26 · 13:00J. Schwan131660J. Snr331111113
LJan 28 · 11:00J. Schwan31119471J. Snr4071111113
LJan 12 · 12:30J. Schwan491011111072J. Snr48124912113
J. Schwan10
WOct 1 · 08:00J. Snr1.507111051J. Schwan2.5011312113WOct 1 · 07:00D. Heczko2.257133101J. Schwan1.57111111123LOct 1 · 06:30J. Schwan1.7311831292J. Mikula2.009111110113LSep 30 · 08:58J. Schwan1.363118101V. Adamczyk3.0011711123LSep 30 · 08:00R. Skacelik1.801111113J. Schwan1.917860LSep 30 · 07:00R. Vavrecka1.615111310113J. Schwan2.20114111262WSep 30 · 06:30J. Schwan1.501111113V. Adamczyk2.507560WSep 29 · 16:59J. Schwan1.531111123V. Adamczyk2.3856100WSep 29 · 16:30J. Schwan1.5311611113V. Adamczyk2.38211651LSep 29 · 15:00J. Schwan1.9198111182A. Walek1.80111196113
J. Snr10
LOct 1 · 08:00J. Snr1.507111051J. Schwan2.5011312113WOct 1 · 07:30J. Mikula2.631261581J. Snr1.44101117113WOct 1 · 06:00J. Snr1.911211110113D. Heczko1.80103111272WSep 24 · 09:30A. Rinka2.1055110J. Snr1.671111133WSep 24 · 08:00A. Rinka2.1011912922J. Snr1.675111011113WSep 24 · 07:00J. Mikula2.256570J. Snr1.571111113LSep 24 · 06:30J. Snr1.6111491162D. Oborny2.20711115113LSep 8 · 12:59M. Heczko2.751111113J. Snr1.407140LSep 8 · 12:00J. Cabak1.611112123J. Snr2.20510100LSep 8 · 11:00J. Levicky2.0012139113J. Snr1.7310111151
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