TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ladislav Moravec vs Ales Langer 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
71110121141171113
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:14 and never touched: 69.9% is still 69.9%
Graded at full timeAles Langer to win
69.9%
69.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLadislav Moravec above · Ales Langer below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 97 set 5, 11-13 · our read held Ales Langer at 69.9%
97 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Moravec 7–9 Ales Langer Ladislav Moravec has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:1469.9%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 1.5pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Langer
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-9 in 16
Langer
Correct
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1457 vs Langer 1521
Langer
Correct
both rated, 64 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 60% vs Langer 80%
Langer
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 40% vs Langer 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec +2 · Langer +4
Langer
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Clear lean (leans Langer) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 2.75 / Langer 1.40
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Langer)-1.5pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13224261
Moravec2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 29)
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 28 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back18% 7 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Langer1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 30)
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 64 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it71% 47 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoravec4wins
AwayLanger6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLanger leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec100%3 of 3
AwayLanger85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec3Langer7n = 10Langer took 7 of 10
S2Moravec6Langer4n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S3Moravec2Langer8n = 10Langer took 8 of 10
S4Moravec3Langer2n = 5Moravec took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoravecLangerM − LBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.038.3−4.3per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecLangerBasisWin rate · lifetime118 / 280 vs 273 / 56742.1%48.2%118 / 280 vs 273 / 567Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LangerMoravec 2.75/Langer 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.9%
Langer · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Langer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LApr 7 · 14:00L. Moravec238690A. Langer331111113
LApr 7 · 13:25L. Moravec2394100A. Langer341111123
LDec 2 · 10:25L. Moravec197390A. Langer331111113
LNov 13 · 11:55L. Moravec229580A. Langer331111113
WMar 26 · 10:25L. Moravec46111113113A. Langer36951571
WMar 25 · 11:20L. Moravec341111123A. Langer2578100
LMar 25 · 10:25L. Moravec48416111162A. Langer551114613113
WMar 17 · 13:55L. Moravec47711711113A. Langer4611811882
WMar 5 · 10:25L. Moravec4414117123A. Langer3912611101
LFeb 28 · 09:25L. Moravec341116521A. Langer49131411113
L. Moravec10
WOct 1 · 12:20L. Moravec3.00871212113J. Vonasek1.361111101092LOct 1 · 11:20L. Moravec2.00981171M. Filipek1.7311119113WSep 29 · 14:30L. Moravec1.601111113F. Balcar2.209390WSep 29 · 13:25P. Chlumsky1.83119551L. Moravec1.8351111113LSep 29 · 12:25L. Moravec1.73691891F. Marat2.00111116113WSep 29 · 10:55F. Balcar2.2011891292L. Moravec1.619111110113LSep 24 · 14:13F. Marat2.10891113113L. Moravec1.67111181152LSep 24 · 12:55L. Moravec1.448612101F. Marat2.63111110123WSep 24 · 11:55L. Moravec1.5311911113R. Jamrich2.38411851LSep 24 · 10:55L. Moravec2.6310490A. Kral1.441211113
A. Langer10
LOct 1 · 11:50A. Langer2.50111110592J. Vonasek1.50841211113WSep 30 · 10:29A. Langer1.83101111113V. Hejda Jr1.83125471WSep 30 · 08:55A. Langer1.8311115113V. Hejda Jr1.83881161WSep 30 · 07:55A. Langer2.2011911113O. Fiklik1.61911791WSep 30 · 06:55A. Langer2.63111189113J. Vonasek1.4417111192LSep 29 · 13:18A. Langer2.0011119952V. Hejda Jr1.73661111113WSep 29 · 12:20A. Langer1.83512311113V. Hejda Jr1.83111011882LSep 29 · 11:20A. Langer2.507950J. Vonasek1.501111113LSep 29 · 10:20A. Langer2.75911871P. Benes1.4011911113LSep 27 · 09:19M. Kulisek1.30913911113A. Langer3.40111111462
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