TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Marek Vyskocil vs Miloslav Ullman 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811117811611––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:13 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarek Vyskocil to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarek Vyskocil above · Miloslav Ullman below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 73 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Marek Vyskocil at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Marek Vyskocil 1–2 Miloslav Ullman Marek Vyskocil has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:1354.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vyskocil
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vyskocil 1670 vs Ullman 1654
Vyskocil
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vyskocil 40% vs Ullman 60%
Ullman
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vyskocil 50% vs Ullman 70%
Ullman
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vyskocil +1 · Ullman +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vyskocil) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vyskocil form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVyskocil 1.80 / Ullman 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vyskocil)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13224089
Vyskocil1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 60 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it93% 28 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it73% 43 of 59
Ullman1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 31 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back31% 12 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back12% 2 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeVyskocil1wins
AwayUllman2wins
2 of 3 to a deciderUllman leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVyskociln = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayUllman66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vyskocil0Ullman3n = 3Ullman took 3 of 3
S2Vyskocil2Ullman1n = 3Vyskocil took 2 of 3
S3Vyskocil2Ullman1n = 3Vyskocil took 2 of 3
S4Vyskocil1Ullman2n = 3Ullman took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricVyskocilUllmanV − UBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match47.747.70.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVyskocilUllmanBasisWin rate · lifetime223 / 415 vs 188 / 39953.7%47.1%223 / 415 vs 188 / 399Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.439.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VyskocilVyskocil 1.80/Ullman 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vyskocil · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ullman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LOct 1 · 07:15M. Vyskocil33811861M. Ullman4011711113
WAug 27 · 07:15M. Vyskocil549121111113M. Ullman4511148392
LJun 29 · 18:15M. Vyskocil561012159102M. Ullman5812101311123
M. Vyskocil10
WOct 1 · 06:15M. Vyskocil1.53101111113T. Liska2.38127861LOct 1 · 05:15M. Vyskocil1.8399111132J. Senk1.83111148113LSep 24 · 16:24O. Mezera2.2011911123M. Vyskocil1.617113101WSep 24 · 15:15M. Vyskocil1.57111111113O. Mezera2.25713691LSep 24 · 14:15M. Vyskocil1.801111681M. Kocvara1.9113411113LSep 24 · 13:15M. Vyskocil2.631171111102L. Veigl1.44411138123WSep 15 · 12:13J. Dolezal1.836540M. Vyskocil1.831111113LSep 15 · 11:15M. Vyskocil1.831181011122J. Dolezal1.83711127143WSep 15 · 10:15M. Vyskocil1.5771111113T. Liska2.25115861WSep 15 · 09:15M. Vyskocil1.911112113M. Kocvara1.8081090
M. Ullman10
WOct 1 · 06:45M. Ullman1.80111358113J. Senk1.91611111152LOct 1 · 05:45M. Ullman1.9195100T. Liska1.801111123LSep 30 · 08:48J. Rochowanski2.381111113M. Ullman1.539990WSep 30 · 07:15M. Ullman1.73131113113M. Vana2.001181581WSep 30 · 06:15M. Ullman1.83111184113R. Pisa1.8384111192WSep 30 · 05:15M. Ullman1.611111113J. Rochowanski2.209920LSep 27 · 20:45L. Veigl1.7391111113M. Ullman2.00116681WSep 27 · 19:15M. Ullman2.0051112113T. Liska1.731181081WSep 27 · 18:15M. Ullman1.9111911173L. Veigl1.807118151WSep 27 · 17:15M. Ullman1.83111159113R. Pisa1.8377111182
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