TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Viktor Leonov vs Artem Azarov 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
15134114111012––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:23 and never touched: 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeViktor Leonov to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Viktor Leonov @ 1.80 · Lost
How it is goingViktor Leonov above · Artem Azarov below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 80 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Viktor Leonov at 54.3%
80 points played in total.
H2H Viktor Leonov 1–1 Artem Azarov Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 18:2354.3%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.3pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Leonov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Leonov 1313 vs Azarov 1181
Leonov
Wrong
both rated, 132 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leonov 20% vs Azarov 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leonov 30% vs Azarov 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Leonov -1 · Azarov -3
Azarov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Leonov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Azarov form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeonov 1.80 / Azarov 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Leonov)-1.3pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223709
Leonov1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 24) · back after a break
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 38 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it73% 24 of 33
Azarov1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 25)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog29% won 12 of 42
Down 0–1, comes back12% 3 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeLeonov1wins
AwayAzarov1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricLeonovAzarovL − ABasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match46.547.5−1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeonovAzarovBasisWin rate · lifetime81 / 137 vs 17 / 5359.1%32.1%81 / 137 vs 17 / 53Avg sets wonper match2.21.6per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LeonovLeonov 1.80/Azarov 1.91
Miss
What we said
54.3%
Leonov · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Viktor Leonov @ 1.80 · Lost
What happened
1–3
Azarov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 24 · 18:35V. Leonov391114591A. Azarov4791611113
WSep 17 · 18:35V. Leonov541211812113A. Azarov48108111452
V. Leonov10
LSep 24 · 18:35A. Azarov1.9191611113V. Leonov1.801114591WSep 24 · 17:35V. Leonov2.25711811113D. Boltenkov1.5711611982LSep 24 · 16:35V. Leonov1.531264111V. Sydorenko2.38101111133LSep 24 · 15:05V. Leonov2.20841161F. Chashchin1.6111119113LSep 24 · 13:05V. Leonov2.2011911472V. Slabyshev1.61811911113WSep 17 · 18:35A. Azarov1.61108111452V. Leonov2.201211812113LSep 17 · 17:35V. Leonov1.83137491V. Chumak1.83111111113LSep 17 · 16:35V. Leonov2.38115891D. Boltenkov1.5381111113LSep 17 · 15:05V. Leonov2.255930Y. Bielokon1.571111113WSep 17 · 13:05V. Leonov1.73111111113V. Sydorenko2.00134661
A. Azarov10
WOct 1 · 14:05V. Lukianevych1.83118881A. Azarov1.8381111113LSep 25 · 19:05V. Chumak1.28111011123A. Azarov3.509126101LSep 25 · 18:05V. Kaganovych1.2581111103A. Azarov3.75118751LSep 25 · 16:35V. Sydorenko1.8081111113A. Azarov1.91115761WSep 25 · 14:35V. Husiev1.571151271A. Azarov2.25131110113LSep 25 · 12:35D. Boltenkov1.301111123A. Azarov3.4068100WSep 24 · 18:35A. Azarov1.9191611113V. Leonov1.801114591LSep 24 · 17:05A. Azarov3.00167111172F. Chashchin1.36181123113LSep 24 · 15:35A. Azarov2.632630D. Boltenkov1.441111113LSep 17 · 18:35A. Azarov1.61108111452V. Leonov2.201211812113
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