TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Tymur Ponomarenko vs Roman Gnoevoy 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181311511118––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:28 and never touched: 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timeRoman Gnoevoy to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTymur Ponomarenko above · Roman Gnoevoy below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 78 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Roman Gnoevoy at 68.5%
78 points played in total.
H2H Tymur Ponomarenko 6–13 Roman Gnoevoy Tymur Ponomarenko has won 6 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:2868.5%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 0.8pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Gnoevoy
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-13 in 19
Gnoevoy
Wrong
gap of 7 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1430 vs Gnoevoy 1576
Gnoevoy
Wrong
both rated, 146 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 40% vs Gnoevoy 60%
Gnoevoy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 30% vs Gnoevoy 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +2 · Gnoevoy -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Gnoevoy) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 2.625 / Gnoevoy 1.444
Signal prob.32% / 69%
Edge (Gnoevoy)-0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13219606
Ponomarenko2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 25)
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 38 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back14% 9 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 42
Gnoevoy1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 29)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 74 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it95% 39 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it74% 49 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko1wins
AwayGnoevoy9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderGnoevoy leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko25%1 of 4
AwayGnoevoy100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko4Gnoevoy6n = 10Gnoevoy took 6 of 10
S2Ponomarenko1Gnoevoy9n = 10Gnoevoy took 9 of 10
S3Ponomarenko3Gnoevoy7n = 10Gnoevoy took 7 of 10
S4Ponomarenko1Gnoevoy4n = 5Gnoevoy took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoGnoevoyP − GBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match28.837.2−8.4per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoGnoevoyBasisWin rate · lifetime212 / 398 vs 412 / 82353.3%50.1%212 / 398 vs 412 / 823Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GnoevoyPonomarenko 2.63/Gnoevoy 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.5%
Gnoevoy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 24 · 23:55T. Ponomarenko361176121R. Gnoevoy4371111143
LSep 23 · 04:05T. Ponomarenko176380R. Gnoevoy331111113
LSep 22 · 03:55T. Ponomarenko249870R. Gnoevoy331111113
LSep 15 · 22:35T. Ponomarenko27531181R. Gnoevoy3911116113
WSep 11 · 03:55T. Ponomarenko331111113R. Gnoevoy228590
LSep 8 · 14:55T. Ponomarenko33118951R. Gnoevoy4291111113
LSep 4 · 01:25T. Ponomarenko195680R. Gnoevoy331111113
LSep 2 · 00:55T. Ponomarenko28741161R. Gnoevoy4111118113
LSep 1 · 01:25T. Ponomarenko1811070R. Gnoevoy341112113
LAug 30 · 22:55T. Ponomarenko531113811102R. Gnoevoy52815116123
T. Ponomarenko10
WSep 30 · 23:35T. Ponomarenko2.50121011113O. Naida1.501012791WSep 25 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.611111921T. Ponomarenko2.2081311113WSep 25 · 02:25T. Ponomarenko2.6312112113O. Naida1.441091181LSep 25 · 01:25T. Ponomarenko3.252750V. Panasenko1.331111113LSep 24 · 23:55T. Ponomarenko2.751176121R. Gnoevoy1.4071111143LSep 24 · 21:55T. Ponomarenko2.501361481S. Abalmaz1.50111116113LSep 23 · 04:05T. Ponomarenko2.386380R. Gnoevoy1.531111113LSep 23 · 02:05V. Khamurda1.67111110113T. Ponomarenko2.10771261LSep 23 · 00:05S. Skachenko1.611111113T. Ponomarenko2.208340WSep 22 · 23:05T. Ponomarenko2.7511125113S. Abalmaz1.404101191
R. Gnoevoy10
WSep 30 · 22:35D. Derevynskyi1.801111100R. Gnoevoy1.911313123LSep 29 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy2.5010630V. Panasenko1.501211113WSep 29 · 01:55S. Abalmaz1.67118561R. Gnoevoy2.1051111113WSep 29 · 00:55R. Gnoevoy1.831211113S. Skachenko1.8310650WSep 28 · 23:55V. Khamurda1.801011681R. Gnoevoy1.9112611113LSep 28 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy1.8031141112O. Naida1.91114118113LSep 28 · 03:25R. Gnoevoy2.206490V. Khamurda1.611111113WSep 28 · 01:55R. Gnoevoy1.7311116113O. Naida2.00771161WSep 24 · 23:55T. Ponomarenko2.751176121R. Gnoevoy1.4071111143WSep 23 · 04:05T. Ponomarenko2.386380R. Gnoevoy1.531111113
Upcoming Matches
T. Ponomarenko
R. Gnoevoy
Oct 1 · 00:35R. Gnoevoy1.67O. Naida2.10—Oct 1 · 02:35R. Gnoevoy1.36O. Melashenko3.00—Oct 1 · 04:05R. Gnoevoy2.10S. Abalmaz1.67—Oct 1 · 21:25R. Gnoevoy2.63V. Panasenko1.44—Oct 1 · 23:25R. Gnoevoy1.67O. Naida2.10—Oct 2 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy2.10V. Khamurda1.67—Oct 2 · 02:55R. Gnoevoy2.10S. Abalmaz1.67—Oct 2 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.36O. Melashenko3.00—
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