TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Lukas Heinzl vs Lukas Rulc 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
12101171210––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:42 and never touched: 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeLukas Heinzl to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Lukas Heinzl @ 1.61 · Won
How it is goingLukas Heinzl above · Lukas Rulc below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 62 set 3, 12-10 · our read held Lukas Heinzl at 58.1%
62 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Heinzl 25–14 Lukas Rulc Lukas Rulc has won 14 of their 39 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 13:4258.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Heinzl
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
25-14 in 39
Heinzl
Correct
gap of 11 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Heinzl 1694 vs Rulc 1646
Heinzl
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heinzl 20% vs Rulc 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heinzl 40% vs Rulc 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Heinzl -3 · Rulc -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Heinzl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rulc form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeinzl 1.615 / Rulc 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Heinzl)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13219472
Heinzl1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 152 of 255
Up 2–0, closes it95% 73 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it79% 113 of 144
Rulc2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 51 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back15% 8 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHeinzl6wins
AwayRulc4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHeinzl leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeinzl100%5 of 5
AwayRulc80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heinzl5Rulc5n = 10split evenly
S2Heinzl5Rulc5n = 10split evenly
S3Heinzl6Rulc4n = 10Heinzl took 6 of 10
S4Heinzl5Rulc2n = 7Heinzl took 5 of 7
S5Heinzl2Rulc2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHeinzlRulcH − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.736.7+2.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeinzlRulcBasisWin rate · lifetime348 / 648 vs 343 / 68853.7%49.9%348 / 648 vs 343 / 688Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.839.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HeinzlHeinzl 1.61/Rulc 2.20
Hit
What we said
58.1%
Heinzl · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Lukas Heinzl @ 1.61 · Won
What happened
3–0
Heinzl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 10:30L. Heinzl4111811113L. Rulc30811471
WAug 16 · 05:45L. Heinzl40211124113L. Rulc44117101152
LAug 10 · 08:13L. Heinzl375117141L. Rulc4211411163
WAug 10 · 07:15L. Heinzl351111133L. Rulc2577110
WAug 9 · 17:45L. Heinzl49117911113L. Rulc4281111482
LAug 8 · 10:45L. Heinzl3967111142L. Rulc46111167113
WAug 2 · 09:45L. Heinzl4311811133L. Rulc409119111
WJul 10 · 05:45L. Heinzl331111113L. Rulc153750
LJul 4 · 14:45L. Heinzl269890L. Rulc331111113
LJun 29 · 09:45L. Heinzl44911111122L. Rulc50118137113
L. Heinzl10
WSep 30 · 15:15M. Myler2.109101191L. Heinzl1.6711126113LSep 30 · 13:45L. Heinzl1.50911129172S. Rejent2.501191011193LSep 29 · 16:49O. Mezera2.381215113L. Heinzl1.53101390LSep 29 · 15:45L. Heinzl1.25912991O. Mezera3.75111011113WSep 29 · 14:15M. Kocvara2.75811991L. Heinzl1.4011811113LSep 29 · 13:45J. Krames Sr2.2012711123L. Heinzl1.6110113101WSep 28 · 16:54L. Heinzl1.5011811113S. Rejent2.50511981LSep 28 · 15:45L. Heinzl1.44118911102A. Radkovsky2.63811118123WSep 28 · 14:15S. Rejent2.63811101272L. Heinzl1.441171210113WSep 28 · 13:45M. Makara2.207360L. Heinzl1.611111113
L. Rulc10
LSep 30 · 13:15M. Myler2.2011813113L. Rulc1.619111191LSep 29 · 12:38L. Dobias1.731411143L. Rulc2.00129120LSep 29 · 11:30L. Rulc1.91101490M. Makara1.801216113WSep 29 · 10:30L. Rulc2.10118115113L. Dobias1.6781171162LSep 29 · 09:30L. Rulc1.6111611792T. Liska2.20711411113LSep 25 · 12:24L. Rulc1.67711881T. Liska2.1011611113WSep 25 · 11:15T. Liska2.20712111162L. Rulc1.611110137113WSep 25 · 10:45L. Rulc1.91141194113M. Makara1.80124111162WSep 25 · 09:45L. Rulc1.91111179113R. Pisa1.8085111192WSep 23 · 16:14M. Myler2.0051090L. Rulc1.731112113
Upcoming Matches
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L. Rulc
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