TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Karel Polak vs Martin Vorel 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116118811811113
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:26 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeMartin Vorel to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKarel Polak above · Martin Vorel below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 88 set 5, 11-3 · our read held Martin Vorel at 59.3%
88 points played in total.
H2H Karel Polak 2–5 Martin Vorel Karel Polak has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:2659.3%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 2.6pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vorel
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Vorel
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polak 1361 vs Vorel 1383
Vorel
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polak 40% vs Vorel 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polak 30% vs Vorel 50%
Vorel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polak +1 · Vorel +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Vorel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorel form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolak 2.20 / Vorel 1.615
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Vorel)-2.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13219259
Polak2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog56% won 37 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back29% 7 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back22% 4 of 18
Vorel1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 29)
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 93 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it86% 36 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it74% 67 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomePolak2wins
AwayVorel5wins
6 of 7 to a deciderVorel leads 5–2, and 6 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayVorel80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polak2Vorel5n = 7Vorel took 5 of 7
S2Polak2Vorel5n = 7Vorel took 5 of 7
S3Polak3Vorel4n = 7Vorel took 4 of 7
S4Polak5Vorel1n = 6Polak took 5 of 6
S5Polak2Vorel4n = 6Vorel took 4 of 6
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away457%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricPolakVorelP − VBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match43.747.1−3.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolakVorelBasisWin rate · lifetime167 / 340 vs 398 / 77849.1%51.2%167 / 340 vs 398 / 778Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VorelPolak 2.20/Vorel 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Vorel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Polak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LJun 20 · 08:39K. Polak226970M. Vorel331111113
LJun 20 · 05:30K. Polak4691191162M. Vorel46115118113
WMay 1 · 16:58K. Polak47124911113M. Vorel44101111392
LMay 1 · 15:00K. Polak4211751182M. Vorel48711118113
WFeb 20 · 08:00K. Polak52891111133M. Vorel50111189112
LJan 8 · 10:30K. Polak51812118122M. Vorel531110711143
LJan 6 · 12:45K. Polak4679151232M. Vorel5611111310113
K. Polak10
LSep 30 · 15:30K. Polak1.7365100J. Mejzlik2.001111123LSep 30 · 14:30K. Polak2.3897100O. Plyska1.531111123WSep 29 · 16:59K. Polak2.6313139143P. Abraham1.44111111121LSep 29 · 16:00P. Abraham1.731111113K. Polak2.007570LSep 29 · 15:00L. Tuma1.808111111113K. Polak1.9111681362LSep 29 · 13:30K. Farsky1.36111311113K. Polak3.001311791WSep 28 · 16:29K. Polak2.001112113J. Pina1.7351070LSep 28 · 15:30J. Pina1.8311125113K. Polak1.838101141WSep 28 · 15:00K. Polak1.911111113J. Mejzlik1.808550LSep 28 · 14:00K. Polak2.2511761192P. Fiser1.57811117113
M. Vorel10
LSep 30 · 15:00J. Mejzlik1.9191111133M. Vorel1.801183111WSep 29 · 08:53J. Puk1.80117831M. Vorel1.9161111113WSep 29 · 07:45J. Puk1.67881171M. Vorel2.1011119113LSep 29 · 06:45A. Sys1.8011115113M. Vorel1.91471151LSep 29 · 05:15P. Hlina1.5311115113M. Vorel2.38971141LSep 26 · 09:09J. Hanacek1.60116411113M. Vorel2.2081111182WSep 26 · 07:30P. Hlina1.505121011112M. Vorel2.501110129133WSep 26 · 07:00M. Vorel1.80841111113O. Plyska1.9111113762LSep 26 · 06:00M. Vorel2.2578111272J. Hanacek1.571111710113WSep 25 · 08:53J. Puk1.91611491M. Vorel1.8011811113
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