TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vasiliy Smyk vs Sergii Skhabitskiy 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11711310121315113
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:03 and never touched: 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeVasiliy Smyk to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Vasiliy Smyk @ 1.73 · Won
How it is goingVasiliy Smyk above · Sergii Skhabitskiy below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 13-15
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 96 set 5, 11-3 · our read held Vasiliy Smyk at 56.9%
96 points played in total.
H2H Vasiliy Smyk 37–36 Sergii Skhabitskiy Sergii Skhabitskiy has won 36 of their 73 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 06:0356.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 1.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Smyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
37-36 in 73
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyk 1434 vs Skhabitskiy 1330
Smyk
Correct
both rated, 104 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyk 60% vs Skhabitskiy 0%
Smyk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyk 70% vs Skhabitskiy 30%
Smyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyk +1 · Skhabitskiy -5
Skhabitskiy
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Smyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skhabitskiy form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyk 1.727 / Skhabitskiy 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Smyk)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13218979
Smyk1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 27)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 34 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it76% 22 of 29
Skhabitskiy2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 28)
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 94 of 239
Down 0–1, comes back20% 24 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyk8wins
AwaySkhabitskiy2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSmyk leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyk80%4 of 5
AwaySkhabitskiy20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyk5Skhabitskiy5n = 10split evenly
S2Smyk7Skhabitskiy3n = 10Smyk took 7 of 10
S3Smyk5Skhabitskiy5n = 10split evenly
S4Smyk7Skhabitskiy1n = 8Smyk took 7 of 8
S5Smyk3Skhabitskiy1n = 4Smyk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmykSkhabitskiySmyk − SkhabitskiyBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.939.0+4.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmykSkhabitskiyBasisWin rate · lifetime269 / 639 vs 472 / 107442.1%44%269 / 639 vs 472 / 1074Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SmykSmyk 1.73/Skhabitskiy 2.00
Hit
What we said
56.9%
Smyk · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Vasiliy Smyk @ 1.73 · Won
What happened
3–2
Smyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 27 · 13:00V. Smyk46581111113S. Skhabitskiy4211118482
WSep 23 · 18:00V. Smyk3911116113S. Skhabitskiy33951181
WAug 19 · 18:00V. Smyk351111133S. Skhabitskiy2696110
WAug 9 · 17:00V. Smyk45111112113S. Skhabitskiy37691481
WJul 27 · 10:20V. Smyk49811127113S. Skhabitskiy48119101172
WJul 26 · 16:30V. Smyk474101111113S. Skhabitskiy4411127682
WJul 10 · 10:20V. Smyk45131110113S. Skhabitskiy361191241
LMay 23 · 17:20V. Smyk4511671292S. Skhabitskiy463111110113
V. Smyk10
WSep 27 · 18:30V. Smyk1.5011811203O. Ovsiienko2.503118181LSep 27 · 16:30V. Melnykov1.8313116113V. Smyk1.831151121LSep 27 · 15:30V. Smyk1.61911118122M. Stetsenko2.20115711143WSep 27 · 14:30D. Ponomarenko2.2011810101V. Smyk1.6191112123WSep 27 · 13:00V. Smyk1.73581111113S. Skhabitskiy2.0011118482WSep 23 · 18:00S. Skhabitskiy1.91951181V. Smyk1.8011116113LSep 23 · 17:00V. Smyk2.20871941O. Lipeiko1.61111117113WSep 23 · 16:00V. Smyk1.8311913113M. Stetsenko1.836111161WSep 23 · 14:30V. Smyk1.5011611113O. Ovsiienko2.50411651WSep 23 · 12:30V. Smyk2.00271111153A. Kovalenko1.73111155132
S. Skhabitskiy10
LSep 28 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy1.91911931V. Melnykov1.8011911113LSep 28 · 10:20S. Skhabitskiy2.005990O. Mytsyk1.731111113LSep 28 · 08:50S. Skhabitskiy2.50881171A. Kovalenko1.5011114113LSep 28 · 07:20S. Skhabitskiy2.5011111211162O. Lipeiko1.50713149183LSep 28 · 05:50S. Skhabitskiy1.83118941M. Stetsenko1.8351111113WSep 27 · 19:00S. Skhabitskiy2.0011136113M. Stetsenko1.738111181WSep 27 · 17:00D. Ponomarenko2.50115881S. Skhabitskiy1.5061111113WSep 27 · 15:00V. Melnykov1.73118791S. Skhabitskiy2.0051111113LSep 27 · 13:00V. Smyk1.73581111113S. Skhabitskiy2.0011118482LSep 23 · 18:00S. Skhabitskiy1.91951181V. Smyk1.8011116113
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