TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Hrabskyi vs Pavel Plakushchyi 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7118111715118411
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:44 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndrii Hrabskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAndrii Hrabskyi above · Pavel Plakushchyi below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 17-15
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 103 set 5, 4-11 · our read held Andrii Hrabskyi at 54.0%
103 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Hrabskyi 10–7 Pavel Plakushchyi Pavel Plakushchyi has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:4454.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Hrabskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-7 in 17
Hrabskyi
Wrong
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrabskyi 1607 vs Plakushchyi 1617
Plakushchyi
Correct
both rated, 10 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrabskyi 40% vs Plakushchyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrabskyi 50% vs Plakushchyi 30%
Hrabskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrabskyi -3 · Plakushchyi -1
Hrabskyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Hrabskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plakushchyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrabskyi 1.80 / Plakushchyi 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hrabskyi)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13218675
Hrabskyi1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite57% won 66 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it81% 54 of 67
Plakushchyi1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 87 of 258
Down 0–1, comes back15% 24 of 159
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrabskyi5wins
AwayPlakushchyi5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrabskyi80%4 of 5
AwayPlakushchyi80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrabskyi5Plakushchyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Hrabskyi4Plakushchyi6n = 10Plakushchyi took 6 of 10
S3Hrabskyi6Plakushchyi4n = 10Hrabskyi took 6 of 10
S4Hrabskyi3Plakushchyi5n = 8Plakushchyi took 5 of 8
S5Hrabskyi3Plakushchyi1n = 4Hrabskyi took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrabskyiPlakushchyiH − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.441.9+1.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrabskyiPlakushchyiBasisWin rate · lifetime245 / 566 vs 327 / 73443.3%44.6%245 / 566 vs 327 / 734Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.035.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HrabskyiHrabskyi 1.80/Plakushchyi 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hrabskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Plakushchyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 30 · 06:50A. Hrabskyi4778171142P. Plakushchyi561111158113
WSep 29 · 12:30A. Hrabskyi539111111113P. Plakushchyi4211761352
LSep 28 · 16:00A. Hrabskyi37981191P. Plakushchyi3711114113
WSep 25 · 15:53A. Hrabskyi4211119113P. Plakushchyi29851151
LSep 25 · 15:40A. Hrabskyi421481191P. Plakushchyi4216114113
WSep 7 · 10:40A. Hrabskyi41114411113P. Plakushchyi4671111892
WJul 31 · 12:10A. Hrabskyi551191212113P. Plakushchyi52911101482
WJun 17 · 09:20A. Hrabskyi361411113P. Plakushchyi2812880
LJun 3 · 10:49A. Hrabskyi387131081P. Plakushchyi45111112113
A. Hrabskyi10
LSep 29 · 15:30V. Marushchak1.571311113A. Hrabskyi2.2511290LSep 29 · 14:30A. Hrabskyi2.00811911112A. Yurkov1.73117117133LSep 29 · 13:30A. Lievshin1.331111113A. Hrabskyi3.259860WSep 29 · 12:30A. Hrabskyi1.839111111113P. Plakushchyi1.8311761352WSep 28 · 18:30M. Deineha1.91713914172A. Hrabskyi1.8011111112193WSep 28 · 17:30A. Yurkov1.83121511872A. Hrabskyi1.831017911113LSep 28 · 16:00P. Plakushchyi2.0011114113A. Hrabskyi1.73981191LSep 28 · 14:00A. Lievshin1.361111113A. Hrabskyi3.007690WSep 28 · 12:00Y. Shmyndra1.7311117792A. Hrabskyi2.00451111113WSep 25 · 16:40V. Voronenko2.2071441372A. Hrabskyi1.6111121111113
P. Plakushchyi10
WSep 30 · 07:50P. Plakushchyi2.00111511113M. Deineha1.73617771LSep 29 · 17:53P. Plakushchyi2.637660A. Lievshin1.441111113WSep 29 · 16:00P. Plakushchyi3.25111165113A. Yurkov1.3356111182WSep 29 · 15:00A. Lievshin1.4058111182P. Plakushchyi2.75111168113LSep 29 · 14:00P. Plakushchyi1.8391090V. Marushchak1.831112113LSep 29 · 12:30A. Hrabskyi1.839111111113P. Plakushchyi1.8311761352LSep 28 · 18:00Y. Shmyndra1.571111113P. Plakushchyi2.254870LSep 28 · 17:00P. Plakushchyi3.25711121052A. Lievshin1.331191012113WSep 28 · 16:00P. Plakushchyi2.0011114113A. Hrabskyi1.73981191LSep 28 · 14:30P. Plakushchyi1.91111410101M. Deineha1.80131212123
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