TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Cezary Pawlik vs Artur Zmijewski 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911119711511––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeCezary Pawlik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
74 points played in total.
Set by set
911119711511––
H2H Cezary Pawlik 5–4 Artur Zmijewski Artur Zmijewski has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Pawlik beat Zmijewski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:06What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (53%)
Zmijewski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1547 vs Zmijewski 1449
Pawlik
Wrong
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 40% vs Zmijewski 60%
Zmijewski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 70% vs Zmijewski 50%
Pawlik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik +1 · Zmijewski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zmijewski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pawlik form (40%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 1.95 / Zmijewski 1.70
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zmijewski)+0.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13204285
Pawlik1.95
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 39 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back15% 7 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 22
Zmijewski1.70
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 70 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it100% 43 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it88% 53 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomePawlik5wins
AwayZmijewski4wins
5 of 9 to a deciderPawlik leads 5–4, and 5 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayZmijewski42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik2Zmijewski7n = 9Zmijewski took 7 of 9
S2Pawlik7Zmijewski2n = 9Pawlik took 7 of 9
S3Pawlik6Zmijewski3n = 9Pawlik took 6 of 9
S4Pawlik4Zmijewski3n = 7Pawlik took 4 of 7
S5Pawlik2Zmijewski3n = 5Zmijewski took 3 of 5
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricPawlikZmijewskiP − ZBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set27−5of 9Avg pointsper match40.941.1−0.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikZmijewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime310 / 526 vs 98 / 16758.9%58.7%310 / 526 vs 98 / 167Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZmijewskiPawlik 1.95/Zmijewski 1.70
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Zmijewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zmijewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 26 · 20:45C. Pawlik537131111113A. Zmijewski47111113842
LSep 12 · 22:00C. Pawlik43116115102A. Zmijewski48611811123
LSep 12 · 18:00C. Pawlik43811101132A. Zmijewski49118127113
LSep 4 · 22:00C. Pawlik4451114772A. Zmijewski541191211113
WSep 4 · 18:00C. Pawlik49131114113A. Zmijewski351541241
WAug 8 · 21:35C. Pawlik4481312113A. Zmijewski3711111051
LAug 8 · 15:35C. Pawlik146350A. Zmijewski331111113
WAug 1 · 22:00C. Pawlik39211114113A. Zmijewski4411881162
WAug 1 · 18:00C. Pawlik391117113A. Zmijewski2361520
C. Pawlik10
WSep 26 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.8011711113J. Oracz1.90611981LSep 26 · 22:00G. Mucha2.50111011133C. Pawlik1.456123111WSep 26 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.537131111113A. Zmijewski2.35111113842LSep 26 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.857111110112A. Fomin1.80113312133LSep 26 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.5011291382G. Mucha2.505111111113WSep 26 · 16:25C. Pawlik1.201111113M. Machelski3.909350WSep 26 · 15:10C. Pawlik2.00141147113J. Oracz1.71129111182WSep 26 · 02:00M. Wozniczka2.154580C. Pawlik1.601111113WSep 26 · 01:10M. Krutak2.15611291C. Pawlik1.6111911113WSep 26 · 00:25C. Pawlik1.251111113M. Wolny3.628780
A. Zmijewski10
WSep 26 · 23:10G. Mucha2.8851391192A. Zmijewski1.371111118113WSep 26 · 21:35M. Machelski3.306750A. Zmijewski1.271111113LSep 26 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.537131111113A. Zmijewski2.35111113842LSep 26 · 19:35A. Zmijewski3.10981161J. Oracz1.3211117113WSep 26 · 18:25A. Fomin2.05761181A. Zmijewski1.7011114113LSep 26 · 17:10G. Mucha2.3716118113A. Zmijewski1.451451181WSep 26 · 15:35M. Machelski2.10115551A. Zmijewski1.6591111113LSep 22 · 01:30A. Zmijewski1.8311631132J. Zelezik1.83511119113LSep 22 · 00:10K. Kwiatkowski2.381161112133A. Zmijewski1.53811714112WSep 21 · 23:30M. Baran2.7513770A. Zmijewski1.401511113
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