TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Regner vs Martin Sopko 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811119811511––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:27 and never touched — 60.7% is still 60.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Regner to win
60.7%
60.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Regner above · Martin Sopko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 5-10
Point 73 set 4, 5-10 — our read held Michal Regner at 60.7%
73 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Michal Regner 7–2 Martin Sopko Martin Sopko has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Regner beat Sopko 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:27What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Sopko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Regner
Wrong
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1642 vs Sopko 1726
Sopko
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 80% vs Sopko 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 60% vs Sopko 80%
Sopko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner +1 · Sopko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sopko) · live re-read · sealed at 39% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sopko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 1.83 / Sopko 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sopko)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13200348
Regner1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Sopko1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeRegner7wins
AwaySopko2wins
1 of 9 to a deciderRegner leads 7–2, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegner77.8%7 of 9
AwaySopkon = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner9Sopko0n = 9Regner took 9 of 9
S2Regner7Sopko2n = 9Regner took 7 of 9
S3Regner4Sopko5n = 9Sopko took 5 of 9
S4Regner4Sopko2n = 6Regner took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home333%
3–1Four sets, home444%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricRegnerSopkoR − SBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set90+9of 9Avg pointsper match38.033.2+4.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerSopkoBasisWin rate · lifetime515 / 1058 vs 167 / 35048.7%47.7%515 / 1058 vs 167 / 350Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SopkoRegner 1.83/Sopko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sopko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sopko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 26 · 12:30M. Regner4111118113M. Sopko33881161
WSep 15 · 22:00M. Regner4311138113M. Sopko379111161
LAug 26 · 22:00M. Regner3711115732M. Sopko42541111113
WAug 13 · 03:30M. Regner361111143M. Sopko2796120
LAug 13 · 02:30M. Regner38156891M. Sopko46131111113
WDec 25 · 04:00M. Regner3911611113M. Sopko33811591
WDec 25 · 00:30M. Regner341111123M. Sopko2266100
WSep 4 · 01:00M. Regner3911116113M. Sopko33691171
WAug 3 · 19:00M. Regner351111133M. Sopko2669110
M. Regner10
WSep 26 · 12:30M. Regner1.5311118113M. Sopko2.38881161LSep 26 · 11:00M. Regner1.8386141172J. Zuzanek1.831111129113WSep 26 · 10:00J. Tazler1.80911111082M. Regner1.91118912113WSep 24 · 13:30J. Zuzanek1.82911751M. Regner1.8811711113WSep 24 · 12:30M. Regner1.8311118113M. Klement1.83761171LSep 24 · 11:00M. Regner2.001011951V. Vejvoda1.7312911113WSep 24 · 10:00J. Zuzanek1.8061111592M. Regner1.91117811113LSep 23 · 03:00M. Klement1.85591111113M. Regner1.8511117862LSep 23 · 01:30M. Regner2.10115481M. Skakal1.6741111113WSep 23 · 00:30V. Vejvoda1.6757120M. Regner2.101111143
M. Sopko10
LSep 26 · 12:30M. Regner1.5311118113M. Sopko2.38881161WSep 26 · 11:30M. Sopko1.831210311113J. Tazler1.83101211772WSep 26 · 10:30J. Zuzanek3.25811171M. Sopko1.3311911113WSep 26 · 09:30M. Sopko1.5720118113M. Vondrak2.251891151WSep 26 · 08:30J. Louda1.807630M. Sopko1.911111113WSep 26 · 07:30M. Sopko1.731111113M. Vondrak2.007960WSep 26 · 06:30J. Zuzanek2.637680M. Sopko1.441111113WSep 16 · 03:00M. Sopko2.0011911143M. Sobisek1.738119121LSep 16 · 02:30M. Sychra1.61111176113M. Sopko2.2068111192WSep 16 · 01:00M. Sobisek1.7312811692M. Sopko2.001011211113
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