TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Chuhai vs Maksym Baday 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118411117511711
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:56 and never touched — 73.3% is still 73.3%
Graded at full timeMaksym Baday to win
73.3%
73.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Chuhai above · Maksym Baday below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 86 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Maksym Baday at 73.3%
86 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Chuhai 68–149 Maksym Baday Serhii Chuhai has won 68 of their 217 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:56What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Baday
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
68-149 in 217
Baday
Correct
gap of 81 in 217, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chuhai 1777 vs Baday 1860
Baday
Correct
both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chuhai 60% vs Baday 40%
Chuhai
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chuhai 60% vs Baday 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chuhai -2 · Baday -3
Baday
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Baday)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baday form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChuhai 3.25 / Baday 1.33
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Baday)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13191086
Chuhai3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 74 of 228
Down 0–1, comes back19% 27 of 139
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 81
Baday1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite75% won 227 of 304
Up 2–0, closes it98% 120 of 123
Up 1–0, closes it87% 168 of 193
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChuhai3wins
AwayBaday7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBaday leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChuhai60%3 of 5
AwayBaday100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chuhai5Baday5n = 10split evenly
S2Chuhai4Baday6n = 10Baday took 6 of 10
S3Chuhai5Baday5n = 10split evenly
S4Chuhai1Baday6n = 7Baday took 6 of 7
S5Chuhai1Baday2n = 3Baday took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChuhaiBadayC − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.739.0−2.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChuhaiBadayBasisWin rate · lifetime483 / 948 vs 535 / 71551%74.8%483 / 948 vs 535 / 715Avg sets wonper match2.02.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.539.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BadayChuhai 3.25/Baday 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.3%
Baday · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Baday won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 24 · 13:00S. Chuhai4211119113M. Baday30661171
LSep 18 · 15:00S. Chuhai4911911992M. Baday45511711113
LSep 18 · 14:00S. Chuhai32115971M. Baday4181111113
LSep 15 · 15:00S. Chuhai325611101M. Baday4311119123
WSep 15 · 14:00S. Chuhai341211113M. Baday2210930
LSep 8 · 16:30S. Chuhai32611781M. Baday4211911113
LSep 1 · 16:30S. Chuhai269890M. Baday331111113
LAug 21 · 16:30S. Chuhai4281111572M. Baday51119911113
LAug 20 · 14:00S. Chuhai2791080M. Baday341112113
WAug 18 · 13:00S. Chuhai51119127123M. Baday497111011102
S. Chuhai10
LSep 25 · 17:00R. Ivanov1.2511911113S. Chuhai3.75711651WSep 25 · 16:30I. Fedoryshyn1.57111050S. Chuhai2.251312113WSep 25 · 15:00M. Baday1.33119891S. Chuhai3.2581111113LSep 25 · 13:00S. Chuhai2.638880I. Fedoryshyn1.441111113LSep 25 · 12:00S. Chuhai3.406890R. Ivanov1.301111113WSep 24 · 17:38S. Chuhai4.00412613113R. Ivanov1.221110111192WSep 24 · 16:00A. Lushchyk1.7391110111S. Chuhai2.0011912133WSep 24 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn1.5364121142S. Chuhai2.381111109113WSep 24 · 13:00M. Baday1.44661171S. Chuhai2.6311119113LSep 24 · 12:00R. Ivanov1.2811611113S. Chuhai3.50711571
M. Baday10
LSep 25 · 17:30I. Fedoryshyn2.0011611113M. Baday1.73611881LSep 25 · 16:00R. Ivanov1.801111113M. Baday1.914960LSep 25 · 15:00M. Baday1.33119891S. Chuhai3.2581111113WSep 25 · 13:30M. Baday1.917111011123R. Ivanov1.80119126102LSep 25 · 12:30M. Baday1.678690I. Fedoryshyn2.101111113LSep 24 · 17:08I. Fedoryshyn1.911118113M. Baday1.8081630LSep 24 · 16:30M. Baday1.91612611102R. Ivanov1.801110115123WSep 24 · 15:30M. Baday1.6711613113I. Fedoryshyn2.105111131WSep 24 · 14:00M. Baday1.1711118113A. Lushchyk4.50541161LSep 24 · 13:00M. Baday1.44661171S. Chuhai2.6311119113
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