TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ruslan Ivanov vs Maksym Baday 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114119116––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRuslan Ivanov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRuslan Ivanov above · Maksym Baday below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 52 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Ruslan Ivanov at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Ivanov 11–6 Maksym Baday Maksym Baday has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Baday beat Ivanov 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 18:35What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Ivanov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-6 in 17
Ivanov
Correct
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ivanov 1890 vs Baday 1858
Ivanov
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ivanov 40% vs Baday 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ivanov 60% vs Baday 40%
Ivanov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ivanov -1 · Baday -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ivanov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baday form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIvanov 1.80 / Baday 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Ivanov)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13191045
Ivanov1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite72% won 52 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it100% 24 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it90% 36 of 40
Baday1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog23% won 3 of 13
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeIvanov6wins
AwayBaday4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderIvanov leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIvanov75%3 of 4
AwayBaday50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ivanov4Baday6n = 10Baday took 6 of 10
S2Ivanov5Baday5n = 10split evenly
S3Ivanov8Baday2n = 10Ivanov took 8 of 10
S4Ivanov2Baday6n = 8Baday took 6 of 8
S5Ivanov4Baday2n = 6Ivanov took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricIvanovBadayI − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.941.6−0.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIvanovBadayBasisWin rate · lifetime75 / 112 vs 537 / 71867%74.8%75 / 112 vs 537 / 718Avg sets wonper match2.42.6per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IvanovIvanov 1.80/Baday 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Ivanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ivanov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 25 · 13:30R. Ivanov48119126102M. Baday517111011123
WSep 24 · 16:30R. Ivanov491110115123M. Baday45612611102
LAug 28 · 15:00R. Ivanov45611121152M. Baday541191013113
LAug 28 · 14:00R. Ivanov2311840M. Baday351311113
WAug 27 · 13:00R. Ivanov452111110113M. Baday4611961282
WAug 21 · 13:00R. Ivanov4181111113M. Baday32115881
LAug 20 · 13:00R. Ivanov28711821M. Baday4111811113
WAug 14 · 13:00R. Ivanov331111113M. Baday229490
WAug 13 · 14:00R. Ivanov485101111113M. Baday4411126872
WAug 6 · 17:45R. Ivanov49117119113M. Baday4681181182
R. Ivanov10
WSep 25 · 17:00R. Ivanov1.2511911113S. Chuhai3.75711651LSep 25 · 15:30R. Ivanov1.91811651I. Fedoryshyn1.8011911113WSep 25 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn1.804820R. Ivanov1.911111113LSep 25 · 13:30M. Baday1.917111011123R. Ivanov1.80119126102WSep 25 · 12:00S. Chuhai3.406890R. Ivanov1.301111113LSep 24 · 17:38S. Chuhai4.00412613113R. Ivanov1.221110111192WSep 24 · 16:30M. Baday1.91612611102R. Ivanov1.801110115123WSep 24 · 15:00R. Ivanov1.221311119113A. Lushchyk4.00111371162LSep 24 · 13:30R. Ivanov2.009131371I. Fedoryshyn1.73111115113WSep 24 · 12:00R. Ivanov1.2811611113S. Chuhai3.50711571
M. Baday10
LSep 25 · 17:30I. Fedoryshyn2.0011611113M. Baday1.73611881LSep 25 · 15:00M. Baday1.33119891S. Chuhai3.2581111113WSep 25 · 14:00S. Chuhai3.2511411572M. Baday1.33811711113WSep 25 · 13:30M. Baday1.917111011123R. Ivanov1.80119126102LSep 25 · 12:30M. Baday1.678690I. Fedoryshyn2.101111113LSep 24 · 17:08I. Fedoryshyn1.911118113M. Baday1.8081630LSep 24 · 16:30M. Baday1.91612611102R. Ivanov1.801110115123WSep 24 · 15:30M. Baday1.6711613113I. Fedoryshyn2.105111131WSep 24 · 14:00M. Baday1.1711118113A. Lushchyk4.50541161LSep 24 · 13:00M. Baday1.44661171S. Chuhai2.6311119113
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