TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Henryk Tkaczyk vs Kacper Kwiatkowski 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 24Finished
Henryk Tkaczyk
Home
1.37
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1186116111161113
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Away
2.87
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
94 points played in total.
Set by set
1186116111161113
H2H Henryk Tkaczyk 10–4 Kacper Kwiatkowski Kacper Kwiatkowski has won 4 of their 14 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Kwiatkowski beat Tkaczyk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:18What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.37 (68%)
Tkaczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-4 in 14
Tkaczyk
Wrong
gap of 6 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkaczyk 1519 vs Kwiatkowski 1419
Tkaczyk
Wrong
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkaczyk 40% vs Kwiatkowski 80%
Kwiatkowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkaczyk 30% vs Kwiatkowski 60%
Kwiatkowski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkaczyk -2 · Kwiatkowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwiatkowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (35%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkaczyk 1.37 / Kwiatkowski 2.87
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13187620
Tkaczyk1.37
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 397 of 567
Up 2–0, closes it94% 223 of 238
Up 1–0, closes it85% 305 of 359
Kwiatkowski2.87
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 73 of 190
Down 0–1, comes back22% 25 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkaczyk6wins
AwayKwiatkowski4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkaczyk75%3 of 4
AwayKwiatkowski50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkaczyk4Kwiatkowski6n = 10Kwiatkowski took 6 of 10
S2Tkaczyk8Kwiatkowski2n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S3Tkaczyk8Kwiatkowski2n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S4Tkaczyk3Kwiatkowski4n = 7Kwiatkowski took 4 of 7
S5Tkaczyk2Kwiatkowski3n = 5Kwiatkowski took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkaczykKwiatkowskiT − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.536.9+5.6per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkaczykKwiatkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime1017 / 1507 vs 128 / 29167.5%44%1017 / 1507 vs 128 / 291Avg sets wonper match2.41.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykTkaczyk 1.37/Kwiatkowski 2.87
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.1%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kwiatkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 20:45H. Tkaczyk4711881192K. Kwiatkowski48711118113
WSep 18 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk501111116113K. Kwiatkowski4313551192
LAug 23 · 21:20H. Tkaczyk561015111192K. Kwiatkowski48121753113
WAug 23 · 15:25H. Tkaczyk331111113K. Kwiatkowski248880
LAug 12 · 03:05H. Tkaczyk381311861K. Kwiatkowski4415711113
WAug 11 · 21:05H. Tkaczyk45121111113K. Kwiatkowski37148691
WAug 10 · 23:10H. Tkaczyk331111113K. Kwiatkowski236890
WAug 10 · 17:20H. Tkaczyk47611118113K. Kwiatkowski3811831152
LJul 27 · 01:25H. Tkaczyk4371111592K. Kwiatkowski48119611113
WJul 26 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk331111113K. Kwiatkowski166190
H. Tkaczyk10
LSep 24 · 03:30H. Tkaczyk1.688960M. Warzecha2.051111113LSep 24 · 02:20H. Tkaczyk1.9381181162M. Karpiuk1.78118112113WSep 24 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.051113113W. Stechly7.5091150WSep 23 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk1.84101311113J. Zelezik1.871211541LSep 23 · 22:20J. Slawomir2.905111011113H. Tkaczyk1.3511812892LSep 23 · 21:30M. Warzecha1.8751111113H. Tkaczyk1.83114721LSep 23 · 20:45H. Tkaczyk1.9611881192K. Kwiatkowski1.76711118113LSep 23 · 19:10H. Tkaczyk1.54511381J. Zelezik2.2511411113LSep 23 · 18:20M. Karpiuk3.601211711113H. Tkaczyk1.2214511332WSep 21 · 09:30J. Slawomir2.4011611962H. Tkaczyk1.50911711113
K. Kwiatkowski10
LSep 24 · 03:55K. Kwiatkowski2.508690J. Zelezik1.471111113WSep 24 · 02:45M. Warzecha1.706240K. Kwiatkowski2.051111113WSep 24 · 01:30M. Karpiuk2.1511871492K. Kwiatkowski1.625111112113WSep 23 · 23:55W. Stechly4.201111391K. Kwiatkowski1.1813911113WSep 23 · 23:05M. Warzecha1.45981191K. Kwiatkowski2.5011118113WSep 23 · 21:55K. Kwiatkowski2.60611611113J. Zelezik1.4411511882WSep 23 · 20:45H. Tkaczyk1.9611881192K. Kwiatkowski1.76711118113LSep 23 · 19:30M. Karpiuk1.65111420113K. Kwiatkowski2.056122251LSep 23 · 17:55J. Slawomir1.831111133K. Kwiatkowski1.8342110LSep 23 · 04:20K. Kwiatkowski1.529380M. Brunner2.371111113
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