TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Maksym Baday vs Serhii Chuhai 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Maksym Baday
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611611119711––
Serhii Chuhai
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:11 and never touched — 68.9% is still 68.9%
Graded at full timeMaksym Baday to win
68.9%
68.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksym Baday above · Serhii Chuhai below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 72 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Maksym Baday at 68.9%
72 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Baday 149–67 Serhii Chuhai Serhii Chuhai has won 67 of their 216 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:11What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Baday
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
149-67 in 216
Baday
Wrong
gap of 82 in 216, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baday 1901 vs Chuhai 1743
Baday
Wrong
both rated, 159 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baday 80% vs Chuhai 40%
Baday
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baday 70% vs Chuhai 30%
Baday
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baday -1 · Chuhai -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Baday)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baday form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaday 1.44 / Chuhai 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Baday)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13185592
Baday1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 18)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite75% won 225 of 300
Up 2–0, closes it98% 119 of 122
Up 1–0, closes it87% 166 of 191
Chuhai2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog31% won 70 of 223
Down 0–1, comes back19% 26 of 137
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 81
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaday7wins
AwayChuhai3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBaday leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaday83.3%5 of 6
AwayChuhai50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baday6Chuhai4n = 10Baday took 6 of 10
S2Baday6Chuhai4n = 10Baday took 6 of 10
S3Baday4Chuhai6n = 10Chuhai took 6 of 10
S4Baday7Chuhai0n = 7Baday took 7 of 7
S5Baday2Chuhai2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBadayChuhaiB − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.136.6+3.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBadayChuhaiBasisWin rate · lifetime540 / 719 vs 482 / 94775.1%50.9%540 / 719 vs 482 / 947Avg sets wonper match2.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.037.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BadayBaday 1.44/Chuhai 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.9%
Baday · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chuhai won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 15:00M. Baday45511711113S. Chuhai4911911992
WSep 18 · 14:00M. Baday4181111113S. Chuhai32115971
WSep 15 · 15:00M. Baday4311119123S. Chuhai325611101
LSep 15 · 14:00M. Baday2210930S. Chuhai341211113
WSep 8 · 16:30M. Baday4211911113S. Chuhai32611781
WSep 1 · 16:30M. Baday331111113S. Chuhai269890
WAug 21 · 16:30M. Baday51119911113S. Chuhai4281111572
WAug 20 · 14:00M. Baday341112113S. Chuhai2791080
LAug 18 · 13:00M. Baday497111011102S. Chuhai51119127123
LAug 13 · 16:30M. Baday4111391172S. Chuhai41511113113
M. Baday10
WSep 24 · 14:00M. Baday1.1711118113A. Lushchyk4.50541161LSep 18 · 17:30A. Lushchyk4.3311117113M. Baday1.20351151WSep 18 · 15:00M. Baday1.44511711113S. Chuhai2.6311911992WSep 18 · 14:00S. Chuhai2.75115971M. Baday1.4081111113WSep 18 · 13:30M. Baday1.401131011113A. Kasyanov2.7551112752WSep 18 · 12:30M. Baday1.201111123A. Lushchyk4.3327100LSep 15 · 17:30I. Fedoryshyn2.1016117113M. Baday1.671461181WSep 15 · 16:00A. Kasyanov3.0091191292M. Baday1.361141110113WSep 15 · 15:00M. Baday1.5011119123S. Chuhai2.505611101LSep 15 · 14:00S. Chuhai2.631211113M. Baday1.4410930
S. Chuhai10
WSep 24 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn1.5364121142S. Chuhai2.381111109113LSep 24 · 12:00R. Ivanov1.2811611113S. Chuhai3.50711571LSep 22 · 17:30S. Chuhai2.109680A. Lushchyk1.671111113WSep 22 · 16:30S. Chuhai1.401111113M. Hubenko2.755790WSep 22 · 15:30A. Vasylets2.638121191S. Chuhai1.4411148113LSep 22 · 14:30S. Chuhai1.446711121A. Vasylets2.6311116143LSep 18 · 15:00M. Baday1.44511711113S. Chuhai2.6311911992LSep 18 · 14:00S. Chuhai2.75115971M. Baday1.4081111113LSep 15 · 15:00M. Baday1.5011119123S. Chuhai2.505611101WSep 15 · 14:00S. Chuhai2.631211113M. Baday1.4410930
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