TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148566
Played Sep 18Finished
Serhii Chuhai
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118511911711––
Maksym Baday
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:22 and never touched — 68.7% is still 68.7%
Graded at full timeMaksym Baday to win
68.7%
68.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Chuhai above · Maksym Baday below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 73 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Maksym Baday at 68.7%
73 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Chuhai 67–147 Maksym Baday Serhii Chuhai has won 67 of their 214 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:22What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Baday
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
67-147 in 214
Baday
Correct
gap of 80 in 214, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chuhai 1800 vs Baday 1926
Baday
Correct
both rated, 126 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chuhai 60% vs Baday 80%
Baday
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chuhai 40% vs Baday 60%
Baday
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chuhai +1 · Baday +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Baday) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chuhai form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChuhai 2.75 / Baday 1.40
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Baday)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13148566
Chuhai2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog31% won 67 of 217
Down 0–1, comes back18% 24 of 135
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 79
Baday1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite75% won 231 of 308
Up 2–0, closes it98% 125 of 128
Up 1–0, closes it87% 174 of 200
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChuhai3wins
AwayBaday7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBaday leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChuhain = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBaday87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chuhai2Baday8n = 10Baday took 8 of 10
S2Chuhai5Baday5n = 10split evenly
S3Chuhai7Baday3n = 10Chuhai took 7 of 10
S4Chuhai1Baday6n = 7Baday took 6 of 7
S5Chuhai2Baday3n = 5Baday took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChuhaiBadayC − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.940.5−3.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChuhaiBadayBasisWin rate · lifetime487 / 952 vs 538 / 71651.2%75.1%487 / 952 vs 538 / 716Avg sets wonper match2.02.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.440.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BadayChuhai 2.75/Baday 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.7%
Baday · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Baday won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 15:00S. Chuhai325611101M. Baday4311119123
WSep 15 · 14:00S. Chuhai341211113M. Baday2210930
LSep 8 · 16:30S. Chuhai32611781M. Baday4211911113
LSep 1 · 16:30S. Chuhai269890M. Baday331111113
LAug 21 · 16:30S. Chuhai4281111572M. Baday51119911113
LAug 20 · 14:00S. Chuhai2791080M. Baday341112113
WAug 18 · 13:00S. Chuhai51119127123M. Baday497111011102
WAug 13 · 16:30S. Chuhai41511113113M. Baday4111391172
LAug 11 · 16:30S. Chuhai43110111292M. Baday461112210113
LAug 6 · 13:00S. Chuhai4171111842M. Baday44112911113
S. Chuhai10
WSep 18 · 13:00S. Chuhai2.3811811113A. Lushchyk1.53411691LSep 18 · 12:00S. Chuhai2.10129100A. Kasyanov1.671411123LSep 17 · 17:00S. Chuhai2.63611951I. Fedoryshyn1.4411311113WSep 17 · 16:00S. Chuhai2.001111113A. Kasyanov1.738250WSep 17 · 15:30S. Chuhai2.50991211113A. Lushchyk1.50111110792LSep 17 · 14:30A. Lushchyk1.50911119123S. Chuhai2.50117911102LSep 17 · 13:30A. Kasyanov1.73111659123S. Chuhai2.007141111102WSep 17 · 12:00I. Fedoryshyn1.53117791S. Chuhai2.3881111113LSep 15 · 17:00A. Kasyanov1.731111163S. Chuhai2.0087140LSep 15 · 16:30I. Fedoryshyn1.401111113S. Chuhai2.754980
M. Baday10
WSep 18 · 13:30M. Baday1.401131011113A. Kasyanov2.7551112752WSep 18 · 12:30M. Baday1.201111123A. Lushchyk4.3327100LSep 15 · 17:30I. Fedoryshyn2.1016117113M. Baday1.671461181WSep 15 · 16:00A. Kasyanov3.0091191292M. Baday1.361141110113WSep 15 · 15:00M. Baday1.5011119123S. Chuhai2.505611101LSep 15 · 14:00S. Chuhai2.631211113M. Baday1.4410930WSep 15 · 13:30M. Baday1.331111811113A. Kasyanov3.2585111342LSep 15 · 12:30M. Baday1.67371641I. Fedoryshyn2.10111114113LSep 8 · 17:34A. Kasyanov3.25148811113M. Baday1.33121111262WSep 8 · 16:30M. Baday1.4011911113S. Chuhai2.75611781
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