TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Martin Vorel vs Martin Obraz 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Martin Vorel
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911115115117––
Martin Obraz
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:41 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeMartin Vorel to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Vorel above · Martin Obraz below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 70 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Martin Vorel at 59.3%
70 points played in total.
H2H Martin Vorel 49–21 Martin Obraz Martin Obraz has won 21 of their 70 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:41What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vorel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
49-21 in 70
Vorel
Correct
gap of 28 in 70, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vorel 1389 vs Obraz 1307
Vorel
Correct
both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vorel 60% vs Obraz 20%
Vorel
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vorel 60% vs Obraz 20%
Vorel
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vorel -1 · Obraz -4
Obraz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Vorel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Obraz form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVorel 1.61 / Obraz 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Vorel)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13185471
Vorel1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 22)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 93 of 170
Up 2–0, closes it86% 37 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it74% 69 of 93
Obraz2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 8 days ago (Sep 16) · back after a break
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 28 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back23% 9 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVorel8wins
AwayObraz2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVorel leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVorel100%6 of 6
AwayObraz50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vorel6Obraz4n = 10Vorel took 6 of 10
S2Vorel7Obraz3n = 10Vorel took 7 of 10
S3Vorel3Obraz7n = 10Obraz took 7 of 10
S4Vorel7Obraz2n = 9Vorel took 7 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVorelObrazV − OBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.236.7+3.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVorelObrazBasisWin rate · lifetime402 / 778 vs 147 / 34051.7%43.2%402 / 778 vs 147 / 340Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VorelVorel 1.61/Obraz 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Vorel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vorel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 16 · 07:00M. Vorel559131111113M. Obraz48111151382
WMay 26 · 06:30M. Vorel43611411113M. Obraz4311811492
WMay 22 · 08:00M. Vorel4212811113M. Obraz351011861
WApr 7 · 12:00M. Vorel4311117143M. Obraz355711121
WApr 2 · 08:00M. Vorel3911116113M. Obraz32771171
LMar 31 · 06:00M. Vorel2688100M. Obraz341111123
LMar 27 · 16:00M. Vorel35911781M. Obraz3911611113
WMar 25 · 10:30M. Vorel4111127113M. Obraz333101191
WMar 4 · 09:33M. Vorel4111118113M. Obraz35981171
WMar 4 · 07:00M. Vorel3712212113M. Obraz3310111021
M. Vorel10
LSep 24 · 11:15M. Vorel1.448850J. Blazek2.631111113LSep 24 · 10:15M. Vorel1.831241161A. Dvoracek1.8314117113LSep 22 · 12:34M. Vorel1.57116971L. Krutina2.2581111113WSep 22 · 11:30L. Krutina1.914911101M. Vorel1.8011116123WSep 22 · 11:00M. Vorel1.3011815113P. Moulis3.406111361WSep 22 · 10:00M. Vorel1.6151111113J. Jnr2.20117261LSep 17 · 08:28M. Vorel2.251011117152K. Jirousek1.57124611173LSep 17 · 07:30K. Jirousek1.7313811113M. Vorel2.001111781WSep 17 · 07:00M. Vorel2.0011119113A. Dvoracek1.73661161WSep 17 · 06:00M. Vorel2.50118137113J. Hanacek1.50611111172
M. Obraz10
WSep 24 · 10:45J. Blazek1.73119991M. Obraz2.0051111113LSep 16 · 08:34P. Cizek1.831112113M. Obraz1.8341080LSep 16 · 07:30M. Obraz1.6711116662P. Cizek2.10971111113LSep 16 · 06:30M. Obraz1.6712118962L. Krutina2.101071111113LSep 16 · 05:30M. Obraz1.576890M. Cmil2.251111113WSep 15 · 12:38M. Obraz1.531111113P. Moulis2.388470LSep 15 · 12:00M. Obraz1.737114151J. Jnr2.0011411173WSep 15 · 10:30P. Moulis2.25118111252M. Obraz1.57311714113LSep 15 · 10:00J. Blazek1.7311119113M. Obraz2.00591191LJun 17 · 09:08J. Puk1.91411127113M. Obraz1.80114101142
Upcoming Matches
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M. Obraz
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