TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Rafal Gajda vs Mariusz Baron 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 23Finished
Rafal Gajda
Home
1.93
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911311118115115
Mariusz Baron
Away
1.78
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:40 and never touched — 55.0% is still 55.0%
Graded at full timeMariusz Baron to win
55.0%
55.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
85 points played in total.
Set by set
911311118115115
H2H Rafal Gajda 7–9 Mariusz Baron Rafal Gajda has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:40What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.78 (52%)
Baron
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-9 in 16
Baron
Wrong
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gajda 1352 vs Baron 1304
Gajda
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gajda 80% vs Baron 60%
Gajda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gajda 60% vs Baron 40%
Gajda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gajda +4 · Baron +2
Gajda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Baron) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gajda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGajda 1.93 / Baron 1.78
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Baron)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13183544
Gajda1.93
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 124 of 285
Down 0–1, comes back27% 44 of 163
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 82
Baron1.78
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 199 of 365
Up 2–0, closes it82% 96 of 117
Up 1–0, closes it67% 142 of 212
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGajda4wins
AwayBaron6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBaron leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGajda75%3 of 4
AwayBaron83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gajda4Baron6n = 10Baron took 6 of 10
S2Gajda4Baron6n = 10Baron took 6 of 10
S3Gajda8Baron2n = 10Gajda took 8 of 10
S4Gajda2Baron7n = 9Baron took 7 of 9
S5Gajda2Baron2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGajdaBaronG − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.842.4−1.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGajdaBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime431 / 836 vs 871 / 182051.6%47.9%431 / 836 vs 871 / 1820Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaronGajda 1.93/Baron 1.78
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Baron · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Gajda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 09:00R. Gajda3811511111M. Baron4413117133
WSep 1 · 04:30R. Gajda571111119153M. Baron52613911132
LJul 21 · 11:55R. Gajda28412841M. Baron43111011113
WJul 21 · 05:55R. Gajda4071111113M. Baron33115981
LJul 16 · 13:55R. Gajda33971161M. Baron4011117113
LJul 16 · 04:10R. Gajda361071181M. Baron4112117113
WJul 9 · 11:25R. Gajda331111113M. Baron218850
LJul 9 · 05:15R. Gajda48511121192M. Baron541191013113
WJul 1 · 13:55R. Gajda47117126113M. Baron47911101162
LJul 1 · 07:55R. Gajda48117111272M. Baron494111310113
R. Gajda10
WSep 23 · 12:30B. Madej2.8011881362R. Gajda1.376111111113WSep 23 · 11:05R. Gajda1.70101111123O. Vincenec2.001286101WSep 23 · 09:30R. Gajda1.32111011133M. Rus3.109127111WSep 23 · 08:20R. Gajda1.50111110113B. Madej2.35771291LSep 23 · 06:45R. Gajda2.62114101152R. Skotniczny1.44711128113WSep 23 · 05:30R. Gajda1.75111165113M. Baron1.9599111162LSep 22 · 20:20R. Gajda1.858111171P. Kaczynski1.8011713113LSep 22 · 18:45M. Tkocz1.57611611113R. Gajda2.2011611942WSep 22 · 18:00W. Pytlas1.835460R. Gajda1.861111113LSep 22 · 17:10R. Gajda1.7413831192P. Kurek1.951111116113
M. Baron10
WSep 23 · 11:30M. Rus2.759490M. Baron1.401111113WSep 23 · 10:40B. Madej2.4511691492M. Baron1.507111112113LSep 23 · 09:55O. Vincenec2.1911116133M. Baron1.538911111LSep 23 · 07:55R. Skotniczny1.5211911113M. Baron2.37911771WSep 23 · 07:10M. Rus2.55331141M. Baron1.4511117113LSep 23 · 05:30R. Gajda1.75111165113M. Baron1.9599111162WSep 22 · 04:20M. Baron2.411111143S. Szostok1.5173120LSep 22 · 03:05M. Baron1.6311119992M. Sikon1.93771111113LSep 22 · 01:30M. Baron2.15711631P. Kurek1.6311711113LSep 22 · 24:30G. Marud1.91611911113M. Baron1.7811911882
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.