TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Radek Zajac vs Patrik Sturma 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118711911117711
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:13 and never touched: 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timePatrik Sturma to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Zajac above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 93 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Patrik Sturma at 64.9%
93 points played in total.
H2H Radek Zajac 3–5 Patrik Sturma Radek Zajac has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:1364.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 4.4pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Sturma
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Sturma
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zajac 1278 vs Sturma 1342
Sturma
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zajac 40% vs Sturma 80%
Sturma
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zajac 50% vs Sturma 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zajac -1 · Sturma +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Sturma) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sturma form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZajac 2.625 / Sturma 1.444
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Sturma)-4.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13266661
Zajac2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 11 of 31
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Sturma1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite49% won 70 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it90% 28 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it53% 39 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeZajac3wins
AwaySturma5wins
5 of 8 to a deciderSturma leads 5–3, and 5 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZajac50%3 of 6
AwaySturman = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zajac6Sturma2n = 8Zajac took 6 of 8
S2Zajac2Sturma6n = 8Sturma took 6 of 8
S3Zajac3Sturma5n = 8Sturma took 5 of 8
S4Zajac3Sturma3n = 6split evenly
S5Zajac2Sturma3n = 5Sturma took 3 of 5
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricZajacSturmaZ − SBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match40.642.4−1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZajacSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime16 / 46 vs 448 / 91934.8%48.8%16 / 46 vs 448 / 919Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.239.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SturmaZajac 2.63/Sturma 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Sturma · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sturma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LOct 9 · 07:15R. Zajac4511791172P. Sturma48811117113
LSep 2 · 09:40R. Zajac4411711962P. Sturma50811911113
WAug 5 · 12:49R. Zajac381611113P. Sturma2614480
WAug 5 · 11:15R. Zajac45116116113P. Sturma4581171182
WJul 24 · 06:10R. Zajac501110711113P. Sturma4591211492
LJul 21 · 13:15R. Zajac4011731362P. Sturma506111111113
LJul 21 · 10:15R. Zajac246990P. Sturma331111113
LJul 7 · 07:45R. Zajac399111091P. Sturma4211812113
R. Zajac10
LOct 9 · 05:45D. Stefek1.501111113R. Zajac2.508580WSep 29 · 09:15D. Stefek1.5078111192R. Zajac2.50111179113WSep 29 · 08:15M. Sobota1.919860R. Zajac1.801111113LSep 29 · 07:15R. Zajac2.25811591D. Stefek1.5711811113LSep 29 · 05:45J. Matus1.83111189113R. Zajac1.8386111122LSep 16 · 09:20J. Sindler1.36101111113R. Zajac3.00124971WSep 16 · 08:15L. Snr1.5793111182R. Zajac2.25111199113LSep 16 · 07:15R. Zajac2.631147121J. Sindler1.4491111143WSep 16 · 05:45L. Zustina1.6710770R. Zajac2.101211113WSep 10 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.259770R. Zajac3.751111113
P. Sturma10
LOct 9 · 07:45D. Stefek1.67111512113P. Sturma2.1013131071WOct 9 · 06:15P. Sturma1.53129911123L. Snr2.381011117102WOct 6 · 21:05L. Zustina1.44117561P. Sturma2.6371111113LOct 6 · 20:10P. Sturma1.736770L. Zustina2.001111113WOct 6 · 18:40M. Dolezal1.805780P. Sturma1.911111113WOct 6 · 18:10D. Stefek1.67101211992P. Sturma2.101210811113LOct 6 · 16:40P. Sturma2.1091111762D. Stefek1.67113811113LOct 6 · 16:10P. Sturma2.10118781L. Krupnik Jr1.6771111113WOct 6 · 14:40D. Stefek1.613101111122P. Sturma2.20111269143LOct 6 · 14:10F. Mandrysz1.7381111123P. Sturma2.001157101
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