TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Roman Hudeczek vs Michal Chalupa 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA18 · Ostrava
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1315116711118611
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:46 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRoman Hudeczek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRoman Hudeczek above · Michal Chalupa below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 99 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Roman Hudeczek at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Roman Hudeczek 34–32 Michal Chalupa Michal Chalupa has won 32 of their 66 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:4654.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Chalupa
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
34-32 in 66
Hudeczek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 66, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hudeczek 1800 vs Chalupa 1686
Hudeczek
Wrong
both rated, 115 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hudeczek 100% vs Chalupa 60%
Hudeczek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hudeczek 90% vs Chalupa 70%
Hudeczek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hudeczek +5 · Chalupa +2
Hudeczek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Hudeczek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hudeczek form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHudeczek 1.833 / Chalupa 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hudeczek)-0.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13264532
Hudeczek1.83
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Chalupa1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHudeczek5wins
AwayChalupa5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHudeczek75%3 of 4
AwayChalupa66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hudeczek4Chalupa6n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S2Hudeczek5Chalupa5n = 10split evenly
S3Hudeczek5Chalupa5n = 10split evenly
S4Hudeczek4Chalupa3n = 7Hudeczek took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHudeczekChalupaH − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.836.3+1.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHudeczekChalupaBasisWin rate · lifetime200 / 389 vs 395 / 74251.4%53.2%200 / 389 vs 395 / 742Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HudeczekHudeczek 1.83/Chalupa 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hudeczek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chalupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 21:30R. Hudeczek44111111113M. Chalupa27113941
LOct 7 · 18:00R. Hudeczek178540M. Chalupa331111113
WOct 1 · 19:00R. Hudeczek47141111113M. Chalupa34166841
LSep 30 · 18:30R. Hudeczek381110891M. Chalupa4391211113
WSep 24 · 21:30R. Hudeczek44111111113M. Chalupa27241381
LSep 24 · 20:00R. Hudeczek56912121582M. Chalupa5911141013113
WSep 21 · 21:29R. Hudeczek331111113M. Chalupa218670
WSep 21 · 18:00R. Hudeczek47511119113M. Chalupa4311691162
LSep 19 · 11:00R. Hudeczek207760M. Chalupa331111113
LSep 13 · 16:00R. Hudeczek327114101M. Chalupa4311911123
R. Hudeczek10
WOct 9 · 21:30M. Chalupa2.00251151R. Hudeczek1.7211116113WOct 9 · 19:30D. Szotek2.386750R. Hudeczek1.531111113WOct 9 · 18:00R. Hudeczek1.53101111113L. Kern2.38127351WOct 7 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.85113941R. Hudeczek1.85111111113WOct 7 · 20:00R. Hudeczek1.67115114113D. Szotek2.1041191122WOct 7 · 19:30L. Kern2.205450R. Hudeczek1.611111113LOct 7 · 18:00R. Hudeczek2.258540M. Chalupa1.571111113WOct 1 · 21:30R. Hudeczek1.73711114113M. Wollny2.0011871182WOct 1 · 20:00M. Wollny1.91118100R. Hudeczek1.801311123WOct 1 · 19:00M. Chalupa1.83166841R. Hudeczek1.83141111113
M. Chalupa10
LOct 9 · 21:30M. Chalupa2.00251151R. Hudeczek1.7211116113WOct 9 · 19:00L. Kern2.001191091M. Chalupa1.7341112113WOct 9 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.831171013153D. Szotek1.834111211132LOct 7 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.85113941R. Hudeczek1.85111111113LOct 7 · 20:30M. Chalupa1.735670L. Kern2.001111113WOct 7 · 19:00M. Chalupa1.8312155123D. Szotek1.83101311101WOct 7 · 18:00R. Hudeczek2.258540M. Chalupa1.571111113WOct 6 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.5211134143M. Holub2.3551111121LOct 6 · 20:00D. Szotek1.83771111113M. Chalupa1.8311119992LOct 1 · 19:00M. Chalupa1.83166841R. Hudeczek1.83141111113
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