TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Chalupa vs Lukas Kern 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511611711––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:10 and never touched: 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Chalupa to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Chalupa above · Lukas Kern below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 51 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Michal Chalupa at 54.5%
51 points played in total.
H2H Michal Chalupa 14–12 Lukas Kern Lukas Kern has won 12 of their 26 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:1054.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chalupa
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-12 in 26
Chalupa
Wrong
gap of 2 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupa 1714 vs Kern 1619
Chalupa
Wrong
both rated, 96 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupa 80% vs Kern 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupa 70% vs Kern 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupa +3 · Kern -1
Chalupa
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Chalupa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kern form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupa 1.727 / Kern 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Chalupa)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13253915
Chalupa1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite58% won 125 of 214
Up 2–0, closes it87% 54 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it77% 88 of 114
Kern2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 40 of 98
Down 0–1, comes back22% 11 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChalupa5wins
AwayKern5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupa71.4%5 of 7
AwayKern100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupa7Kern3n = 10Chalupa took 7 of 10
S2Chalupa4Kern6n = 10Kern took 6 of 10
S3Chalupa6Kern4n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S4Chalupa3Kern4n = 7Kern took 4 of 7
S5Chalupa2Kern3n = 5Kern took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChalupaKernC − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.139.2+1.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupaKernBasisWin rate · lifetime396 / 742 vs 146 / 28453.4%51.4%396 / 742 vs 146 / 284Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.437.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaChalupa 1.73/Kern 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kern won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 20:00M. Chalupa55178111092L. Kern571511812113
WSep 22 · 15:30M. Chalupa43117113113L. Kern3541151142
LSep 10 · 18:30M. Chalupa389118101L. Kern4111711123
WSep 9 · 19:30M. Chalupa361113123L. Kern30911100
WSep 4 · 20:00M. Chalupa4211911113L. Kern34511991
WSep 4 · 17:05M. Chalupa41112512113L. Kern46511111092
LSep 4 · 16:00M. Chalupa50111198112L. Kern42251111133
LAug 31 · 12:00M. Chalupa4997131192L. Kern521111118113
WAug 26 · 19:30M. Chalupa331111113L. Kern224990
LAug 19 · 20:00M. Chalupa246990L. Kern331111113
M. Chalupa10
WOct 7 · 19:00M. Chalupa1.8312155123D. Szotek1.83101311101WOct 7 · 18:00R. Hudeczek2.258540M. Chalupa1.571111113WOct 6 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.5211134143M. Holub2.3551111121LOct 6 · 20:00D. Szotek1.83771111113M. Chalupa1.8311119992WOct 6 · 19:00Z. Pagac2.75761141M. Chalupa1.4011112113WOct 6 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711211113M. Holub2.25411681WOct 2 · 21:00M. Chalupa1.53118711113M. Holub2.3841111982LOct 2 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.73178111092L. Kern2.001511812113LOct 2 · 19:30T. Kypr2.1011912113M. Chalupa1.677111051WOct 2 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.571211113M. Holub2.2510660
L. Kern10
WOct 7 · 20:58L. Kern1.73911411113D. Szotek2.0011611382LOct 7 · 19:30L. Kern2.205450R. Hudeczek1.611111113WOct 7 · 18:30D. Szotek2.0091112962L. Kern1.731151011113WOct 2 · 21:30T. Kypr1.65811931L. Kern2.1011511113WOct 2 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.73178111092L. Kern2.001511812113WOct 2 · 19:00M. Holub2.2591191152L. Kern1.57113116113LOct 2 · 18:30L. Kern2.38172161T. Kypr1.53111119113LSep 23 · 21:30R. Hudeczek1.6561111113L. Kern2.10116641WSep 23 · 20:30L. Kern1.5711118113M. Holub2.25941191WSep 23 · 19:00L. Kern1.401111113Z. Pagac2.758980
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