TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Chalupa vs Marek Holub 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210116116––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:59 and never touched: 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Chalupa to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Chalupa above · Marek Holub below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 56 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Michal Chalupa at 59.7%
56 points played in total.
H2H Michal Chalupa 46–38 Marek Holub Marek Holub has won 38 of their 84 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:5959.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Chalupa
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
46-38 in 84
Chalupa
Correct
gap of 8 in 84, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupa 1678 vs Holub 1622
Chalupa
Correct
both rated, 56 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupa 20% vs Holub 80%
Holub
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupa 40% vs Holub 70%
Holub
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupa -1 · Holub +4
Holub
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Chalupa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupa 1.571 / Holub 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Chalupa)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13226925
Chalupa1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 123 of 212
Up 2–0, closes it87% 53 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it77% 86 of 112
Holub2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 30)
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 79 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back19% 19 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChalupa7wins
AwayHolub3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderChalupa leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupa85.7%6 of 7
AwayHolub66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupa7Holub3n = 10Chalupa took 7 of 10
S2Chalupa8Holub2n = 10Chalupa took 8 of 10
S3Chalupa6Holub4n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S4Chalupa4Holub3n = 7Chalupa took 4 of 7
S5Chalupa2Holub3n = 5Holub took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChalupaHolubC − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.738.3+2.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupaHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime400 / 756 vs 163 / 34852.9%46.8%400 / 756 vs 163 / 348Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaChalupa 1.57/Holub 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Chalupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 18:00M. Chalupa3811124652M. Holub518101111113
WSep 17 · 20:00M. Chalupa4111811113M. Holub31611951
WSep 7 · 20:30M. Chalupa331111113M. Holub207580
WSep 3 · 20:00M. Chalupa331111113M. Holub165470
LSep 2 · 21:30M. Chalupa3761121172M. Holub50118119113
WSep 2 · 18:30M. Chalupa48111268113M. Holub47810111172
WSep 1 · 21:28M. Chalupa501011117113M. Holub4912991182
LSep 1 · 20:00M. Chalupa48131151182M. Holub53159117113
WAug 31 · 15:30M. Chalupa341112113M. Holub2691070
WAug 25 · 14:30M. Chalupa45121012113M. Holub4010121081
M. Chalupa10
LOct 2 · 19:30T. Kypr2.1011912113M. Chalupa1.677111051LOct 1 · 21:06M. Chalupa2.00711118102D. Szotek1.73115511123WOct 1 · 20:30M. Chalupa1.831210711113D. Szotek1.83101211732LOct 1 · 19:00M. Chalupa1.83166841R. Hudeczek1.83141111113LOct 1 · 18:00M. Wollny1.571411113M. Chalupa2.2512770LSep 30 · 21:28D. Szotek1.801111113M. Chalupa1.913980LSep 30 · 20:30D. Szotek2.10111311113M. Chalupa1.67515951WSep 30 · 19:30M. Chalupa3.7511115113M. Wollny1.25481171WSep 30 · 18:30R. Hudeczek1.911110891M. Chalupa1.8091211113WSep 28 · 20:59M. Chalupa1.6711119123T. Kypr2.107911101
M. Holub10
LOct 2 · 19:00M. Holub2.2591191152L. Kern1.57113116113WSep 30 · 17:29M. Holub1.91111811153J. Simecek1.808204131WSep 30 · 16:00M. Holub1.80911119133J. Holubec1.91119811112WSep 30 · 15:30J. Simecek1.8011321142M. Holub1.91911114113WSep 30 · 14:00M. Holub1.73311511113D. Unzeitig2.0011511792LSep 28 · 21:30D. Szotek1.67111112113M. Holub2.109131081WSep 28 · 20:30M. Holub2.631311113T. Kypr1.4411950LSep 28 · 19:00M. Holub2.001316681D. Szotek1.73151411113WSep 28 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.5311124652M. Holub2.388101111113WSep 23 · 20:58Z. Pagac1.61911831M. Holub2.2011711113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.