TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Chalupa vs Lukas Kern 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
17158111181012911
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:44 and never touched: 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeMichal Chalupa to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Michal Chalupa @ 1.73 · Lost
How it is goingMichal Chalupa above · Lukas Kern below
Set 1 · 17-15
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 112 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Michal Chalupa at 56.9%
112 points played in total.
H2H Michal Chalupa 14–11 Lukas Kern Lukas Kern has won 11 of their 25 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 18:4456.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 1.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chalupa
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-11 in 25
Chalupa
Wrong
gap of 3 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupa 1677 vs Kern 1589
Chalupa
Wrong
both rated, 88 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupa 40% vs Kern 60%
Kern
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupa 40% vs Kern 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupa -1 · Kern +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Chalupa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupa form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupa 1.727 / Kern 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Chalupa)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13228100
Chalupa1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 123 of 212
Up 2–0, closes it87% 53 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it77% 86 of 112
Kern2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 38 of 95
Down 0–1, comes back20% 10 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChalupa6wins
AwayKern4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderChalupa leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupa83.3%5 of 6
AwayKern75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupa6Kern4n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S2Chalupa5Kern5n = 10split evenly
S3Chalupa5Kern5n = 10split evenly
S4Chalupa4Kern3n = 7Chalupa took 4 of 7
S5Chalupa3Kern2n = 5Chalupa took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChalupaKernC − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.538.3+2.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupaKernBasisWin rate · lifetime398 / 752 vs 143 / 28052.9%51.1%398 / 752 vs 143 / 280Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.237.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaChalupa 1.73/Kern 2.00
Miss
What we said
56.9%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Michal Chalupa @ 1.73 · Lost
What happened
2–3
Kern won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 15:30M. Chalupa43117113113L. Kern3541151142
LSep 10 · 18:30M. Chalupa389118101L. Kern4111711123
WSep 9 · 19:30M. Chalupa361113123L. Kern30911100
WSep 4 · 20:00M. Chalupa4211911113L. Kern34511991
WSep 4 · 17:05M. Chalupa41112512113L. Kern46511111092
LSep 4 · 16:00M. Chalupa50111198112L. Kern42251111133
LAug 31 · 12:00M. Chalupa4997131192L. Kern521111118113
WAug 26 · 19:30M. Chalupa331111113L. Kern224990
LAug 19 · 20:00M. Chalupa246990L. Kern331111113
WAug 13 · 21:30M. Chalupa491111511113L. Kern4813711892
M. Chalupa10
WOct 2 · 21:00M. Chalupa1.53118711113M. Holub2.3841111982LOct 2 · 19:30T. Kypr2.1011912113M. Chalupa1.677111051WOct 2 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.571211113M. Holub2.2510660LOct 1 · 21:06M. Chalupa2.00711118102D. Szotek1.73115511123WOct 1 · 20:30M. Chalupa1.831210711113D. Szotek1.83101211732LOct 1 · 19:00M. Chalupa1.83166841R. Hudeczek1.83141111113LOct 1 · 18:00M. Wollny1.571411113M. Chalupa2.2512770LSep 30 · 21:28D. Szotek1.801111113M. Chalupa1.913980LSep 30 · 20:30D. Szotek2.10111311113M. Chalupa1.67515951WSep 30 · 19:30M. Chalupa3.7511115113M. Wollny1.25481171
L. Kern10
WOct 2 · 21:30T. Kypr1.65811931L. Kern2.1011511113WOct 2 · 19:00M. Holub2.2591191152L. Kern1.57113116113LOct 2 · 18:30L. Kern2.38172161T. Kypr1.53111119113LSep 23 · 21:30R. Hudeczek1.6561111113L. Kern2.10116641WSep 23 · 20:30L. Kern1.5711118113M. Holub2.25941191WSep 23 · 19:00L. Kern1.401111113Z. Pagac2.758980LSep 23 · 18:00R. Hudeczek1.7351111113L. Kern2.00117751LSep 22 · 16:59L. Kern1.61115111082D. Szotek2.20811512113WSep 22 · 16:30D. Szotek2.2571151182L. Kern1.57115115113LSep 22 · 15:30L. Kern2.0041151142M. Chalupa1.73117113113
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