TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Derco vs Miroslav Stolba 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811711811––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:28 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Derco to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Derco above · Miroslav Stolba below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 56 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Michal Derco at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Michal Derco 3–3 Miroslav Stolba Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Derco beat Stolba 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:2854.0%Our read57.8%to break even at 1.73
short by 3.8pp57.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.73 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Derco
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derco 1236 vs Stolba 1198
Derco
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derco 60% vs Stolba 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derco 40% vs Stolba 60%
Stolba
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Derco -1 · Stolba +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Derco) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerco 1.73 / Stolba 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Derco)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13248765
Derco1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 21 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it82% 18 of 22
Stolba2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 14 of 28
Down 0–1, comes back29% 5 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back10% 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeDerco3wins
AwayStolba3wins
3 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerco60%3 of 5
AwayStolban = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derco5Stolba1n = 6Derco took 5 of 6
S2Derco2Stolba4n = 6Stolba took 4 of 6
S3Derco3Stolba3n = 6split evenly
S4Derco2Stolba2n = 4split evenly
S5Derco1Stolba2n = 3Stolba took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricDercoStolbaD − SBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match39.241.3−2.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDercoStolbaBasisWin rate · lifetime52 / 99 vs 57 / 11552.5%49.6%52 / 99 vs 57 / 115Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DercoDerco 1.73/Stolba 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Derco · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Stolba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WOct 5 · 11:30M. Derco4611915113M. Stolba429111391
WJul 30 · 06:00M. Derco48111169113M. Stolba4596111182
LJul 9 · 09:00M. Derco3711411832M. Stolba48611911113
WJul 9 · 07:30M. Derco351111133M. Stolba2366110
LJun 2 · 17:30M. Derco50126611152M. Stolba571011118173
LJun 2 · 16:30M. Derco199730M. Stolba331111113
M. Derco10
LOct 5 · 12:00M. Derco1.53118117122I. Palmi2.38811211143WOct 5 · 11:30M. Stolba2.109111391M. Derco1.6711915113WOct 5 · 10:00M. Derco1.4411811113I. Kolenciak2.63511761LOct 2 · 21:30V. Rybar1.75124114113M. Derco1.95101191182WOct 2 · 20:30T. Navrat1.9185100M. Derco1.801111123WOct 2 · 19:30M. Derco2.0011114123V. Rybar1.738311101LOct 2 · 18:30Z. Luksa2.1051111113M. Derco1.67118361LSep 26 · 17:06M. Blaha1.631211113M. Derco2.1310560LSep 26 · 16:00R. Adamczyk1.671113113M. Derco2.1051140LSep 26 · 15:00M. Blaha1.531211116113M. Derco2.3814981182
M. Stolba10
WOct 5 · 12:30I. Kolenciak1.532640M. Stolba2.381111113LOct 5 · 11:30M. Stolba2.109111391M. Derco1.6711915113WOct 5 · 10:30I. Palmi2.505660M. Stolba1.501111113LSep 30 · 09:28Z. Luksa1.4413118113M. Stolba2.631181181WSep 30 · 08:30A. Kanak1.73113751M. Stolba2.0071111113LSep 30 · 07:30M. Stolba2.6381161192Z. Luksa1.44114118113WSep 30 · 06:30J. Toth1.7389100M. Stolba2.001111123WSep 22 · 20:58M. Stolba1.401111113S. Blabla2.755940WSep 22 · 20:30S. Blabla2.0010580M. Stolba1.731211113LSep 22 · 19:30M. Stolba3.25781141M. Blaha1.3311119113
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