TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Maliuk vs Oleksandr Lyman 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811119119114––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:27 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeSerhii Maliuk to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Maliuk above · Oleksandr Lyman below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 74 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Serhii Maliuk at 60.1%
74 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Maliuk 47–30 Oleksandr Lyman Oleksandr Lyman has won 30 of their 77 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:2760.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Maliuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
47-30 in 77
Maliuk
Correct
gap of 17 in 77, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maliuk 1533 vs Lyman 1436
Maliuk
Correct
both rated, 97 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maliuk 40% vs Lyman 60%
Lyman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maliuk 50% vs Lyman 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Maliuk -1 · Lyman +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Maliuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lyman form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaliuk 1.571 / Lyman 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Maliuk)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245279
Maliuk1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 67 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it92% 34 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it76% 51 of 67
Lyman2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog30% won 70 of 237
Down 0–1, comes back16% 23 of 140
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaliuk6wins
AwayLyman4wins
Maliuk leads 6–4.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaliuk75%3 of 4
AwayLyman50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maliuk4Lyman6n = 10Lyman took 6 of 10
S2Maliuk5Lyman5n = 10split evenly
S3Maliuk8Lyman2n = 10Maliuk took 8 of 10
S4Maliuk4Lyman3n = 7Maliuk took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaliukLymanM − LBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.834.3+2.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaliukLymanBasisWin rate · lifetime278 / 559 vs 271 / 62649.7%43.3%278 / 559 vs 271 / 626Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaliukMaliuk 1.57/Lyman 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Maliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Maliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 07:30S. Maliuk4181111113O. Lyman33119941
WSep 30 · 08:30S. Maliuk4512913113O. Lyman3510111131
LSep 29 · 05:00S. Maliuk1954100O. Lyman341111123
WSep 28 · 11:30S. Maliuk44101111123O. Lyman401299101
LSep 25 · 08:00S. Maliuk30661171O. Lyman3911116113
WSep 22 · 09:00S. Maliuk331111113O. Lyman239950
WSep 21 · 11:00S. Maliuk45111111123O. Lyman381396101
LSep 18 · 09:30S. Maliuk4110911111O. Lyman4212116133
LSep 15 · 09:30S. Maliuk371171091O. Lyman3951112113
WSep 11 · 05:00S. Maliuk331111113O. Lyman209650
S. Maliuk10
LOct 5 · 06:00S. Maliuk2.634121211102M. Hubenko1.441114108123WOct 5 · 04:30S. Maliuk1.831418113O. Kurylenko1.83121660LSep 30 · 11:00O. Kurylenko1.83671113113S. Maliuk1.83111191122LSep 30 · 10:00O. Syksa1.61148137113S. Maliuk2.201211111182WSep 30 · 08:30O. Lyman2.3810111131S. Maliuk1.5312913113LSep 30 · 06:30A. Vasylets1.611111113S. Maliuk2.207670WSep 30 · 04:30M. Hubenko1.44119911112S. Maliuk2.63911118133LSep 29 · 10:30O. Ziakun1.8312611113S. Maliuk1.831011871WSep 29 · 09:30S. Maliuk2.6311911113M. Hubenko1.44611791WSep 29 · 08:30S. Maliuk1.831181110113D. Kuzmenko1.8381181272
O. Lyman10
WOct 5 · 06:30O. Lyman2.1011116113O. Kurylenko1.67661171LOct 5 · 05:30O. Ziakun1.5031211113O. Lyman2.501110791WOct 2 · 11:00O. Ziakun1.6139110O. Lyman2.201111133WOct 2 · 10:00D. Kuzmenko1.44111241072O. Lyman2.638101112113LOct 2 · 08:30D. Prylepa1.4013611113O. Lyman2.751111981WOct 2 · 06:30S. Miroshnychenko3.25811791O. Lyman1.3311911113LOct 2 · 04:30O. Syksa1.2061111143O. Lyman4.331146121LSep 30 · 10:30M. Hubenko1.3361111113O. Lyman3.25114691WSep 30 · 09:30O. Lyman2.20117111113O. Kurylenko1.6191111382LSep 30 · 08:30O. Lyman2.3810111131S. Maliuk1.5312913113
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