TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Maliuk vs Maksym Hubenko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411121412101181012
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:51 and never touched: 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeMaksym Hubenko to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Maliuk above · Maksym Hubenko below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 104 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Maksym Hubenko at 67.7%
104 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Maliuk 16–28 Maksym Hubenko Serhii Maliuk has won 16 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5167.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 1.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Hubenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-28 in 44
Hubenko
Correct
gap of 12 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maliuk 1524 vs Hubenko 1695
Hubenko
Correct
both rated, 172 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maliuk 40% vs Hubenko 80%
Hubenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maliuk 60% vs Hubenko 80%
Hubenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maliuk +1 · Hubenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Hubenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hubenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaliuk 2.625 / Hubenko 1.444
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Hubenko)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245119
Maliuk2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 90 of 213
Down 0–1, comes back19% 23 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 66
Hubenko1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite71% won 257 of 361
Up 2–0, closes it93% 132 of 142
Up 1–0, closes it81% 182 of 225
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaliuk4wins
AwayHubenko6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHubenko leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaliuk25%1 of 4
AwayHubenko50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maliuk4Hubenko6n = 10Hubenko took 6 of 10
S2Maliuk3Hubenko7n = 10Hubenko took 7 of 10
S3Maliuk4Hubenko6n = 10Hubenko took 6 of 10
S4Maliuk5Hubenko3n = 8Maliuk took 5 of 8
S5Maliuk2Hubenko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaliukHubenkoM − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.042.4−2.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaliukHubenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime277 / 558 vs 576 / 105849.6%54.4%277 / 558 vs 576 / 1058Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HubenkoMaliuk 2.63/Hubenko 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Hubenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hubenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 06:00S. Maliuk494121211102M. Hubenko551114108123
WSep 30 · 04:30S. Maliuk52911118133M. Hubenko51119911112
WSep 29 · 09:30S. Maliuk4211911113M. Hubenko33611791
LSep 23 · 11:00S. Maliuk31118931M. Hubenko3851111113
WSep 16 · 05:00S. Maliuk3851111113M. Hubenko26114471
LSep 14 · 06:00S. Maliuk3189140M. Hubenko381111163
LSep 4 · 08:30S. Maliuk238690M. Hubenko331111113
LAug 26 · 05:00S. Maliuk481251011102M. Hubenko521011127123
LAug 25 · 05:00S. Maliuk361110691M. Hubenko4391211113
WAug 20 · 08:00S. Maliuk502121211133M. Hubenko551110149112
S. Maliuk10
WOct 5 · 07:30S. Maliuk1.5781111113O. Lyman2.25119941WOct 5 · 04:30S. Maliuk1.831418113O. Kurylenko1.83121660LSep 30 · 11:00O. Kurylenko1.83671113113S. Maliuk1.83111191122LSep 30 · 10:00O. Syksa1.61148137113S. Maliuk2.201211111182WSep 30 · 08:30O. Lyman2.3810111131S. Maliuk1.5312913113LSep 30 · 06:30A. Vasylets1.611111113S. Maliuk2.207670WSep 30 · 04:30M. Hubenko1.44119911112S. Maliuk2.63911118133LSep 29 · 10:30O. Ziakun1.8312611113S. Maliuk1.831011871WSep 29 · 09:30S. Maliuk2.6311911113M. Hubenko1.44611791WSep 29 · 08:30S. Maliuk1.831181110113D. Kuzmenko1.8381181272
M. Hubenko10
WOct 5 · 05:00O. Syksa2.38111051172M. Hubenko1.53512113113LOct 4 · 17:33M. Hubenko1.53611961A. Vasylets2.3811811113WOct 4 · 15:30S. Aristarkhov1.9112119111M. Hubenko1.8014911133WOct 4 · 14:30M. Hubenko1.36111152D. Kuzmenko3.007781WOct 4 · 13:30A. Vasylets2.5011126111M. Hubenko1.5031411133WOct 4 · 12:30M. Hubenko1.361111113O. Syksa3.008660WOct 1 · 11:30D. Kuzmenko3.00121111552M. Hubenko1.361013911113WOct 1 · 10:00M. Hubenko1.1711118133S. Miroshnychenko4.505411111LSep 30 · 04:30M. Hubenko1.44119911112S. Maliuk2.63911118133LSep 29 · 09:30S. Maliuk2.6311911113M. Hubenko1.44611791
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