TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Radomir Benesz vs Miroslav Dolezal 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
13117118111181311
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:30 and never touched: 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeRadomir Benesz to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRadomir Benesz above · Miroslav Dolezal below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 104 set 5, 13-11 · our read held Radomir Benesz at 56.1%
104 points played in total.
H2H Radomir Benesz 1–0 Miroslav Dolezal Miroslav Dolezal has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 18:3056.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 7.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Benesz
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Benesz 1229 vs Dolezal 1336
Dolezal
Wrong
both rated, 108 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benesz 20% vs Dolezal 60%
Dolezal
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benesz 20% vs Dolezal 60%
Dolezal
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benesz -3 · Dolezal +1
Benesz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Benesz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dolezal form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenesz 1.571 / Dolezal 2.25
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Dolezal)-0.5pp
TT Cup · #13242655
Benesz1.57
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite25% won 3 of 12
Dolezal2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog51% won 19 of 37
Down 0–1, comes back29% 6 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeBenesz1wins
AwayDolezal0wins
Benesz leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricBeneszDolezalB − DBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match43.030.0+13.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBeneszDolezalBasisWin rate · lifetime84 / 231 vs 26 / 5636.4%46.4%84 / 231 vs 26 / 56Avg sets wonper match1.71.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.935.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DolezalBenesz 1.57/Dolezal 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.1%
Benesz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Benesz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 17 · 20:10R. Benesz4371411113M. Dolezal301112251
R. Benesz10
WOct 4 · 19:45R. Benesz1.7311114113P. Sturma2.00991191LOct 4 · 17:45R. Benesz1.57711111172J. Oleksik2.25116713113LOct 2 · 20:45R. Benesz2.38121196132D. Stefek1.531081111153LOct 2 · 20:10B. Jonas1.6711128113R. Benesz2.109101171WOct 2 · 19:10R. Benesz2.381111159113D. Stefek1.53513131152LOct 2 · 17:40T. Ogrocki1.3011118113R. Benesz3.40781191LSep 24 · 20:40J. Vanous1.53111234113R. Benesz2.38610111112LSep 24 · 20:10R. Benesz2.00551161P. Jokiel1.7311111113LSep 24 · 18:40J. Vanous1.731111113R. Benesz2.005680LSep 24 · 18:10T. Ogrocki1.361111133R. Benesz3.0047110
M. Dolezal10
WOct 4 · 18:15P. Sturma2.006960M. Dolezal1.731111113LSep 27 · 21:09L. Krupnik Jr1.91911118113M. Dolezal1.8011781172LSep 27 · 20:10M. Dolezal1.4071011101J. Lysek2.7511128123WSep 27 · 18:40L. Krupnik Jr1.67611681M. Dolezal2.1011811113WSep 27 · 18:10J. Oleksik1.5333121122M. Dolezal2.381111109113LSep 24 · 17:15P. Sturma1.5011611113M. Dolezal2.50311471LSep 24 · 15:45M. Dolezal2.006960P. Sturma1.731111113WSep 24 · 14:45M. Dolezal1.8311116113L. Zustina1.83471191WSep 24 · 13:45M. Dolezal2.001511113J. Lysek1.7313630WSep 17 · 20:40M. Dolezal1.8011811113P. Jokiel1.91311431
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