TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jiri Volek vs Jiri Cerny 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511911116511––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:21 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Volek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Volek above · Jiri Cerny below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 69 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Jiri Volek at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Volek 4–3 Jiri Cerny Jiri Cerny has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:2154.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Volek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Volek 1506 vs Cerny 1518
Cerny
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Volek 60% vs Cerny 80%
Cerny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Volek 40% vs Cerny 60%
Cerny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Volek -1 · Cerny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Volek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVolek 1.80 / Cerny 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Volek)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13221646
Volek1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Cerny1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog50% won 9 of 18
Down 0–1, comes back25% 2 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeVolek4wins
AwayCerny3wins
3 of 7 to a deciderVolek leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVolek75%3 of 4
AwayCerny66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Volek4Cerny3n = 7Volek took 4 of 7
S2Volek3Cerny4n = 7Cerny took 4 of 7
S3Volek5Cerny2n = 7Volek took 5 of 7
S4Volek4Cerny1n = 5Volek took 4 of 5
S5Volek1Cerny2n = 3Cerny took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricVolekCernyV − CBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match41.636.3+5.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVolekCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime39 / 87 vs 78 / 15944.8%49.1%39 / 87 vs 78 / 159Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VolekVolek 1.80/Cerny 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Volek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 18 · 16:55J. Volek4211911113J. Cerny27911431
LJan 20 · 17:55J. Volek389811101J. Cerny4211118123
LNov 24 · 17:25J. Volek44311811112J. Cerny52119118133
WOct 21 · 15:55J. Volek371412113J. Cerny28121060
WSep 9 · 17:25J. Volek331111113J. Cerny167540
WAug 19 · 16:25J. Volek48691111113J. Cerny4011114952
LAug 14 · 15:25J. Volek49128711112J. Cerny491011114133
J. Volek10
LSep 30 · 15:55D. Sochor2.251111108153J. Volek1.57671211132WSep 30 · 15:25M. Sochor1.50781191J. Volek2.5011118113WSep 16 · 18:35J. Volek3.4071511133A. Kosacky1.3011136111LSep 16 · 16:55J. Volek2.00128100J. Hrncir1.731411123WSep 16 · 15:55J. Volek2.2581111113M. Sulc1.57118971WSep 16 · 14:55J. Volek3.751111113A. Kosacky1.259680LSep 10 · 18:00J. Hrncir1.721111113J. Volek2.007560LSep 10 · 17:59K. Hrnic1.831111113J. Volek1.837560LSep 10 · 16:55J. Volek2.005121131M. Sochor1.7311149113LSep 10 · 15:55J. Volek2.2558111182M. Sulc1.57111145113
J. Cerny10
WSep 30 · 16:25J. Cerny1.7311411113M. Sochor2.00711791LSep 30 · 14:55D. Sochor2.251241111113J. Cerny1.5714117632WSep 29 · 18:30M. Dvorak1.91413111162J. Cerny1.80111546113WSep 29 · 17:25D. Tichy2.632411121J. Cerny1.4411113143WSep 29 · 16:25J. Cerny1.57116711113Z. Zahradka2.2581111782LSep 29 · 14:55M. Dvorak1.91111169113J. Cerny1.8098111142WSep 26 · 14:02J. Cerny1.801412133D. Sochor1.901210110LSep 26 · 12:55A. Langer1.911111113J. Cerny1.809570LSep 26 · 12:25M. Sulc1.6112119113J. Cerny2.201061141WSep 26 · 11:25J. Cerny1.5711119143D. Sochor2.259911121
Upcoming Matches
J. Volek
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J. Cerny
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