TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yaroslav Kovshun vs Andrey Troyan 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11914129118111113
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:59 and never touched: 60.2% is still 60.2%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Kovshun to win
60.2%
60.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYaroslav Kovshun above · Andrey Troyan below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 109 set 5, 11-13 · our read held Yaroslav Kovshun at 60.2%
109 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Kovshun 88–44 Andrey Troyan Andrey Troyan has won 44 of their 132 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:59What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kovshun
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
88-44 in 132
Kovshun
Wrong
gap of 44 in 132, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovshun 1646 vs Troyan 1725
Troyan
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovshun 100% vs Troyan 100%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovshun 70% vs Troyan 90%
Troyan
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovshun +6 · Troyan +8
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Kovshun) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Troyan form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovshun 1.53 / Troyan 2.38
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Kovshun)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13212437
Kovshun1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite60% won 103 of 171
Up 2–0, closes it94% 46 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it80% 71 of 89
Troyan2.38
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 8
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog30% won 52 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back14% 14 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovshun6wins
AwayTroyan4wins
7 of 10 to a deciderKovshun leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovshun50%2 of 4
AwayTroyan33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovshun4Troyan6n = 10Troyan took 6 of 10
S2Kovshun4Troyan6n = 10Troyan took 6 of 10
S3Kovshun6Troyan4n = 10Kovshun took 6 of 10
S4Kovshun6Troyan3n = 9Kovshun took 6 of 9
S5Kovshun4Troyan3n = 7Kovshun took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovshunTroyanK − TBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.642.60.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovshunTroyanBasisWin rate · lifetime334 / 626 vs 482 / 98053.4%49.2%334 / 626 vs 482 / 980Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KovshunKovshun 1.53/Troyan 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.2%
Kovshun · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Troyan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 29 · 07:00Y. Kovshun53111498112A. Troyan569121111133
WSep 26 · 10:35Y. Kovshun51119911113A. Troyan4471111872
WSep 25 · 05:00Y. Kovshun511081111113A. Troyan4212113882
WSep 22 · 10:00Y. Kovshun4171111123A. Troyan341176101
LSep 18 · 05:00Y. Kovshun2311570A. Troyan351311113
LSep 15 · 08:00Y. Kovshun4311911482A. Troyan43711311113
WSep 12 · 10:35Y. Kovshun43641111113A. Troyan4511117972
WSep 11 · 08:00Y. Kovshun4111811113A. Troyan31611681
WSep 8 · 07:05Y. Kovshun42411411123A. Troyan48119117102
LSep 5 · 10:52Y. Kovshun3871111272A. Troyan48118711113
Y. Kovshun10
WSep 29 · 06:00Y. Volkov1.73115110Y. Kovshun2.001311133WSep 29 · 05:00Y. Kovshun1.301111113D. Khairov3.406470WSep 26 · 12:05V. Vietrov1.80911231Y. Kovshun1.9111711113WSep 26 · 10:35Y. Kovshun1.53119911113A. Troyan2.3871111872WSep 26 · 08:35D. Khairov3.251341110112Y. Kovshun1.331111312133WSep 26 · 06:35Y. Volkov1.737129121Y. Kovshun2.00111011143LSep 26 · 05:35I. Efimenko1.611111113Y. Kovshun2.208970WSep 25 · 10:30Y. Volkov1.7381050Y. Kovshun2.001112113LSep 25 · 09:30Y. Kovshun2.1011911682S. Kyienko1.67711511113LSep 25 · 08:30Y. Kovshun1.67111251172O. Karpenko2.10614114113
A. Troyan10
WSep 29 · 05:30O. Leonenko1.83781151A. Troyan1.8311119113WSep 29 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.613460A. Troyan2.201111113WSep 28 · 11:00Y. Volkov1.673570A. Troyan2.101111113WSep 28 · 10:00A. Martyniuk2.256850A. Troyan1.571111113WSep 28 · 08:30I. Emets1.5356100A. Troyan2.381111123WSep 28 · 06:30V. Bilobrov3.401113831A. Troyan1.3051511113WSep 28 · 04:30V. Kolesnykov3.4081050A. Troyan1.301112113WSep 26 · 11:35D. Khairov2.25711141A. Troyan1.5711411113LSep 26 · 10:35Y. Kovshun1.53119911113A. Troyan2.3871111872WSep 26 · 09:05I. Efimenko1.33981581A. Troyan3.25111113113
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