TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kacper Petas vs Tibor Spanik 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171210114––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:29 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTibor Spanik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKacper Petas above · Tibor Spanik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 55 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Tibor Spanik at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Kacper Petas 7–17 Tibor Spanik Kacper Petas has won 7 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:29What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Spanik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-17 in 24
Spanik
Wrong
gap of 10 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Petas 1931 vs Spanik 1875
Petas
Correct
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Petas 60% vs Spanik 80%
Spanik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Petas 70% vs Spanik 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Petas -1 · Spanik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Spanik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Spanik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPetas 2.00 / Spanik 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Spanik)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13200603
Petas2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 106 of 247
Down 0–1, comes back18% 23 of 129
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 64
Spanik1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 149 of 259
Up 2–0, closes it94% 73 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it75% 108 of 145
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePetas4wins
AwaySpanik6wins
7 of 10 to a deciderSpanik leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePetas40%2 of 5
AwaySpanik60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Petas5Spanik5n = 10split evenly
S2Petas5Spanik5n = 10split evenly
S3Petas6Spanik4n = 10Petas took 6 of 10
S4Petas4Spanik5n = 9Spanik took 5 of 9
S5Petas2Spanik5n = 7Spanik took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPetasSpanikP − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.144.6−2.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPetasSpanikBasisWin rate · lifetime682 / 1290 vs 255 / 45952.9%55.6%682 / 1290 vs 255 / 459Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpanikPetas 2.00/Spanik 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Spanik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Petas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 27 · 05:15K. Petas4061211113T. Spanik321110831
LSep 26 · 09:00K. Petas4051111762T. Spanik46115811113
WSep 26 · 08:05K. Petas561311138113T. Spanik52156111192
LSep 14 · 09:20K. Petas3441121162T. Spanik50118119113
LSep 14 · 04:10K. Petas2791080T. Spanik341112113
WAug 31 · 12:30K. Petas551312613113T. Spanik531110111562
LAug 31 · 08:30K. Petas4311811762T. Spanik50811911113
WJun 21 · 12:05K. Petas4211911113T. Spanik31711761
LJun 21 · 09:40K. Petas4011711652T. Spanik49711911113
LJun 21 · 07:20K. Petas4411491192T. Spanik49911117113
K. Petas10
LSep 27 · 10:00K. Petas1.80711891K. Kolodziej1.9111911113LSep 27 · 07:45K. Petas2.107570M. Jadczyk1.671111113WSep 27 · 06:30K. Petas1.831111123M. Miastowski1.8376100WSep 27 · 05:15K. Petas1.8361211113T. Spanik1.831110831LSep 27 · 04:10K. Kolodziej1.831311113K. Petas1.8311820WSep 27 · 03:25K. Petas1.251111113G. Adamiak3.755320WSep 26 · 14:10A. Abbasi2.001191051K. Petas1.7391112113WSep 26 · 13:20K. Kolodziej1.8081160K. Petas1.911113113WSep 26 · 11:15G. Adamiak3.7551191182K. Petas1.25116119113WSep 26 · 10:25M. Miastowski1.836111051K. Petas1.8311712113
T. Spanik10
WSep 27 · 10:25M. Jadczyk2.009950T. Spanik1.731111113LSep 27 · 08:05M. Miastowski2.10111614153T. Spanik1.6781812131WSep 27 · 07:20G. Adamiak2.38911391T. Spanik1.5311911113LSep 27 · 05:15K. Petas1.8361211113T. Spanik1.831110831WSep 27 · 04:30M. Jadczyk2.50111091182T. Spanik1.50912117113WSep 27 · 03:00K. Kolodziej2.251511951T. Spanik1.5717311113WSep 26 · 14:35T. Spanik1.611111113K. Kolodziej2.208960WSep 26 · 12:55T. Spanik1.6781411113M. Miastowski2.101112691WSep 26 · 11:40T. Spanik1.7314511113A. Abbasi2.001211791LSep 26 · 10:00T. Spanik1.5711119562G. Adamiak2.25561111113
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