Grzegorz Poliniewicz vs Krzysztof Kapik 3-1

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesHSC 2 · Czestochowa

Played Oct 12Finished

Grzegorz Poliniewicz

Home

1.80

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

7111151210119––

Krzysztof Kapik

Away

1.90

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:49 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Krzysztof Kapik to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is going

Point-by-point unavailable

BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.

76 points played in total.

Set by set

7111151210119––

H2H Grzegorz Poliniewicz 43–43 Krzysztof Kapik Dead even across their 86 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Kapik

Poliniewicz 1.80/Kapik 1.90

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Kapik · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Poliniewicz won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 13:49

54.0%Our read52.6%to break even at 1.90

clears by 1.4pp

52.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.90 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.80 (51%)

Poliniewicz

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

43-43 in 86

—

Too close

gap of 0, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Poliniewicz 1681 vs Kapik 1675

Poliniewicz

Correct

both rated, 6 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Poliniewicz 20% vs Kapik 60%

Kapik

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Poliniewicz 30% vs Kapik 50%

Kapik

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Poliniewicz +1 · Kapik +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kapik) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Poliniewicz: form 20%, the price implies 56%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsPoliniewicz 1.80 / Kapik 1.90

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Kapik)+1.4pp

Same-day rematch · 5h before this match

Kapik beat Poliniewicz 3-1.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomePoliniewicz5wins

AwayKapik5wins

6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomePoliniewicz83.3%5 of 6

AwayKapik100%4 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Poliniewicz6Kapik4n = 10Poliniewicz took 6 of 10

S2Poliniewicz5Kapik5n = 10split evenly

S3Poliniewicz8Kapik2n = 10Poliniewicz took 8 of 10

S4Poliniewicz3Kapik5n = 8Kapik took 5 of 8

S5Poliniewicz2Kapik4n = 6Kapik took 4 of 6

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away440%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricPoliniewiczKapikP − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.540.3+3.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricPoliniewiczKapikBasisWin rate · lifetime1199 / 2090 vs 1114 / 210557.4%52.9%1199 / 2090 vs 1114 / 2105Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.0per match

TT Elite Series · #13284903

Poliniewicz1.80

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite70% won 299 of 430

Up 2–0, closes it94% 136 of 145

Up 1–0, closes it82% 224 of 274

Kapik1.90

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog42% won 162 of 384

Down 0–1, comes back20% 43 of 211

Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 94

Grzegorz Poliniewicz vs Krzysztof Kapik 3-1 · TT Elite Series

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Grzegorz Poliniewicz vs Krzysztof Kapik 3-1 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.