Ivan Kozachuk vs Serhii Rak 3-0

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Ivan Kozachuk

Home

2.75

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 0

Set by set

117118111––––

Serhii Rak

Away

1.40

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:46 and never touched: 69.5% is still 69.5%

Graded at full time

Serhii Rak to win

69.5%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingIvan Kozachuk above · Serhii Rak below

Set 1 · 11-7

Set 2 · 11-8

Set 3 · 11-1

Point 49 set 3, 11-1 · our read held Serhii Rak at 69.5%

49 points played in total.

H2H Ivan Kozachuk 61–97 Serhii Rak Ivan Kozachuk has won 61 of their 158 meetings.

Last 10 · 0–10Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Rak

Kozachuk 2.75/Rak 1.40

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

69.5%

Rak · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–0

Kozachuk won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 16:46

69.5%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40

short by 1.9pp

71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.40 (66%)

Rak

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

61-97 in 158

Rak

Wrong

gap of 36 in 158, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Kozachuk 1680 vs Rak 1858

Rak

Wrong

both rated, 178 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Kozachuk 40% vs Rak 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Kozachuk 40% vs Rak 30%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Kozachuk -1 · Rak +2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 70% · Clear lean (leans Rak) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Rak: form 40%, the price implies 71%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsKozachuk 2.75 / Rak 1.40

Signal prob.31% / 70%

Edge (Rak)-1.9pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeKozachuk0wins

AwayRak10wins

4 of 10 to a deciderRak leads 10–0, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeKozachuk0%0 of 4

AwayRak100%6 of 6

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Kozachuk4Rak6n = 10Rak took 6 of 10

S2Kozachuk2Rak8n = 10Rak took 8 of 10

S3Kozachuk2Rak8n = 10Rak took 8 of 10

S4Kozachuk2Rak4n = 6Rak took 4 of 6

S5Kozachuk0Rak4n = 4Rak took 4 of 4

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away440%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away440%

These 10 meetings

MetricKozachukRakK − RBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.241.1−9.9per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricKozachukRakBasisWin rate · lifetime561 / 1110 vs 558 / 100550.5%55.5%561 / 1110 vs 558 / 1005Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.7per match

Setka Cup · #13281393

Kozachuk2.75

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog36% won 86 of 240

Down 0–1, comes back20% 27 of 134

Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 79

Rak1.40

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As favourite67% won 255 of 383

Up 2–0, closes it94% 128 of 136

Up 1–0, closes it83% 185 of 222

Ivan Kozachuk vs Serhii Rak 3-0 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Ivan Kozachuk vs Serhii Rak 3-0 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.