Nazar Kovalchuk vs Ivan Kozachuk 3-2

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Nazar Kovalchuk

Home

2.00

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

2–8Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

711411115118113

Ivan Kozachuk

Away

1.73

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:45 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Ivan Kozachuk to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingNazar Kovalchuk above · Ivan Kozachuk below

Set 1 · 7-11

Set 2 · 4-11

Set 3 · 11-5

Set 4 · 11-8

Set 5 · 11-3

Point 82 set 5, 11-3 · our read held Ivan Kozachuk at 54.0%

82 points played in total.

H2H Nazar Kovalchuk 25–26 Ivan Kozachuk Nazar Kovalchuk has won 25 of their 51 meetings.

Last 10 · 6–4SplitHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Kozachuk

Kovalchuk 2.00/Kozachuk 1.73

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Kozachuk · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Kovalchuk won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 17:45

54.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727

short by 3.9pp

57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Kozachuk

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

25-26 in 51

—

Too close

gap of 1, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Kovalchuk 1623 vs Kozachuk 1701

Kozachuk

Wrong

both rated, 78 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Kovalchuk 40% vs Kozachuk 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Kovalchuk 20% vs Kozachuk 50%

Kozachuk

Wrong

30pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Kovalchuk +1 · Kozachuk +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kozachuk) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Kozachuk: form 40%, the price implies 58%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsKovalchuk 2.00 / Kozachuk 1.727

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Kozachuk)-3.9pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeKovalchuk6wins

AwayKozachuk4wins

2 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeKovalchuk100%4 of 4

AwayKozachuk66.7%4 of 6

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Kovalchuk4Kozachuk6n = 10Kozachuk took 6 of 10

S2Kovalchuk6Kozachuk4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10

S3Kovalchuk5Kozachuk5n = 10split evenly

S4Kovalchuk3Kozachuk3n = 6split evenly

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away220%

These 10 meetings

MetricKovalchukKozachukKovalchuk − KozachukBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.033.5+0.5per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricKovalchukKozachukBasisWin rate · lifetime423 / 815 vs 562 / 111151.9%50.6%423 / 815 vs 562 / 1111Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.936.6per match

Setka Cup · #13281351

Kovalchuk2.00

20%won 2 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog43% won 47 of 109

Down 0–1, comes back21% 11 of 53

Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 31

Kozachuk1.73

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite60% won 117 of 195

Up 2–0, closes it95% 62 of 65

Up 1–0, closes it82% 87 of 106

Nazar Kovalchuk vs Ivan Kozachuk 3-2 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Nazar Kovalchuk vs Ivan Kozachuk 3-2 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.