TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Artur Kubiak vs Michal Kumor 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesOSP 1 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 7
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611711111711––
Michal Kumor
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched: 69.3% is still 69.3%
Graded at full timeArtur Kubiak to win
69.3%
69.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingArtur Kubiak above · Michal Kumor below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-1
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 65 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Artur Kubiak at 69.3%
65 points played in total.
H2H Artur Kubiak 1–0 Michal Kumor Michal Kumor has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Kubiak beat Kumor 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:4869.3%Our read75.2%to break even at 1.33
short by 5.9pp75.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.33 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (69%)
Kubiak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kubiak 1457 vs Kumor 1223
Kubiak
Wrong
both rated, 235 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kubiak 100% vs Kumor 40%
Kubiak
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kubiak 70% vs Kumor 30%
Kubiak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kubiak +7 · Kumor -2
Kubiak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Kubiak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubiak form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKubiak 1.33 / Kumor 3.00
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Kubiak)-5.9pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13280219
Kubiak1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite69% won 165 of 238
Up 2–0, closes it96% 80 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it83% 113 of 136
Kumor3.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog10% won 1 of 10
Down 0–1, comes back10% 1 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKubiak1wins
AwayKumor0wins
Kubiak leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKubiakKumorKubiak − KumorBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match42.030.0+12.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKubiakKumorBasisWin rate · lifetime498 / 911 vs 221 / 53754.7%41.2%498 / 911 vs 221 / 537Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.535.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KubiakKubiak 1.33/Kumor 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.3%
Kubiak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kumor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 11 · 16:35A. Kubiak4211911113M. Kumor30611671
A. Kubiak10
WOct 11 · 19:40K. Kwiatkowski3.2576131122A. Kubiak1.331111118113WOct 11 · 18:55A. Szurgot3.251061181A. Kubiak1.3312119113WOct 11 · 18:10A. Kubiak2.6311211113A. Fomin1.44611571WOct 11 · 16:35A. Kubiak1.5011911113M. Kumor2.50611671WOct 11 · 15:25G. Mucha1.67151261132A. Kubiak2.101314119113WOct 9 · 02:10A. Kubiak2.00126611113Z. Nocun1.73101111532WOct 9 · 00:35A. Skupinski2.63129481A. Kubiak1.44101111113LOct 8 · 23:45M. Guzik1.33111110113A. Kubiak3.25661291LOct 8 · 22:55A. Kubiak2.384116121H. Tkaczyk1.5311611143LOct 8 · 21:45A. Kubiak2.004270A. Zmijewski1.731111113
M. Kumor10
LOct 11 · 20:05G. Mucha1.50811911113M. Kumor2.5011911482LOct 11 · 19:20A. Fomin1.3611911113M. Kumor3.00711571WOct 11 · 17:20K. Kwiatkowski1.617370M. Kumor2.201111113LOct 11 · 16:35A. Kubiak1.5011911113M. Kumor2.50611671WOct 11 · 15:00A. Szurgot2.0014101171M. Kumor1.7316125113WOct 6 · 01:10M. Kumor6.5041111113M. Lewczuk1.10119981LOct 6 · 00:10M. Kumor4.33771281M. Leczycki1.20111110113LOct 5 · 23:10M. Kumor8.0048120H. Tkaczyk1.061111143LOct 5 · 22:10M. Zielinski1.051111133M. Kumor8.5081110LOct 5 · 21:20M. Kumor4.502111061A. Krezel1.1711412113
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