Grzegorz Mucha vs Michal Kumor 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesOSP 1 · Czestochowa

Played Oct 11Finished

Grzegorz Mucha

Home

1.50

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 2

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

811119911114118

Michal Kumor

Away

2.50

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:58 and never touched: 62.5% is still 62.5%

Graded at full time

Grzegorz Mucha to win

62.5%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingGrzegorz Mucha above · Michal Kumor below

Set 1 · 8-11

Set 2 · 11-9

Set 3 · 9-11

Set 4 · 11-4

Set 5 · 11-8

Point 93 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 62.5%

93 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 19:58

62.5%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50

short by 4.2pp

66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.50 (63%)

Mucha

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Mucha 1412 vs Kumor 1229

Mucha

Correct

both rated, 183 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Mucha 40% vs Kumor 60%

Kumor

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Mucha 50% vs Kumor 30%

Mucha

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Mucha +2 · Kumor -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Mucha) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Kumor form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMucha 1.50 / Kumor 2.50

Signal prob.63% / 38%

Edge (Mucha)-4.2pp (anti-value)

TT Elite Series · #13279763

Mucha1.50

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite65% won 121 of 187

Up 2–0, closes it97% 64 of 66

Up 1–0, closes it78% 83 of 106

Kumor2.50

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

As underdog10% won 1 of 10

Down 0–1, comes back10% 1 of 10

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricMuchaKumorBasisWin rate · lifetime198 / 394 vs 221 / 53650.3%41.2%198 / 394 vs 221 / 536Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.035.1per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Mucha

Mucha 1.50/Kumor 2.50

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

62.5%

Mucha · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Mucha won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

G. Mucha10