TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Andrzej Szurgot vs Artur Kubiak 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesOSP 1 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012611119811––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:52 and never touched: 73.7% is still 73.7%
Graded at full timeArtur Kubiak to win
73.7%
73.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrzej Szurgot above · Artur Kubiak below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 78 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Artur Kubiak at 73.7%
78 points played in total.
H2H Andrzej Szurgot 2–2 Artur Kubiak Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:5273.7%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 1.3pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Kubiak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szurgot 1209 vs Kubiak 1447
Kubiak
Correct
both rated, 238 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szurgot 40% vs Kubiak 100%
Kubiak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szurgot 50% vs Kubiak 70%
Kubiak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Szurgot -1 · Kubiak +5
Kubiak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% · Strong (leans Kubiak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubiak form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzurgot 3.25 / Kubiak 1.333
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Kubiak)-1.3pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13275291
Szurgot3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog20% won 28 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back12% 12 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 72
Kubiak1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite69% won 165 of 238
Up 2–0, closes it96% 80 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it83% 113 of 136
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSzurgot2wins
AwayKubiak2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szurgot2Kubiak2n = 4split evenly
S2Szurgot2Kubiak2n = 4split evenly
S3Szurgot3Kubiak1n = 4Szurgot took 3 of 4
S4Szurgot0Kubiak3n = 3Kubiak took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricSzurgotKubiakS − KBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match38.035.0+3.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzurgotKubiakBasisWin rate · lifetime38 / 164 vs 497 / 91023.2%54.6%38 / 164 vs 497 / 910Avg sets wonper match1.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match31.737.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KubiakSzurgot 3.25/Kubiak 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.7%
Kubiak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kubiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LOct 4 · 01:35A. Szurgot381191081A. Kubiak4281112113
WOct 3 · 19:35A. Szurgot48411139113A. Kubiak40114111132
LSep 27 · 21:45A. Szurgot33791161A. Kubiak3911116113
WSep 27 · 17:45A. Szurgot331111113A. Kubiak195770
A. Szurgot10
LOct 11 · 17:20A. Szurgot4.00135551G. Mucha1.22111111113WOct 11 · 16:55A. Szurgot2.4591111113K. Kwiatkowski1.47117761WOct 11 · 16:15A. Szurgot2.5091111103K. Kwiatkowski1.50117751LOct 11 · 15:00A. Szurgot2.0014101171M. Kumor1.7316125113LOct 11 · 02:35A. Szurgot1.83711561D. Pyrek1.8311711113LOct 11 · 01:00A. Szurgot2.75118951P. Gesiarz1.4081111113WOct 10 · 23:45A. Szurgot4.00571112113M. Lewczuk1.22111181032WOct 10 · 22:10A. Szurgot1.501111113D. Maszczynski2.355570LOct 10 · 21:00A. Szurgot3.5010850A. Fomin1.261211113WOct 10 · 19:40D. Maszczynski1.916360A. Szurgot1.801111113
A. Kubiak10
WOct 11 · 18:10A. Kubiak2.6311211113A. Fomin1.44611571WOct 11 · 16:35A. Kubiak1.5011911113M. Kumor2.50611671WOct 11 · 15:25G. Mucha1.67151261132A. Kubiak2.101314119113WOct 9 · 02:10A. Kubiak2.00126611113Z. Nocun1.73101111532WOct 9 · 00:35A. Skupinski2.63129481A. Kubiak1.44101111113LOct 8 · 23:45M. Guzik1.33111110113A. Kubiak3.25661291LOct 8 · 22:55A. Kubiak2.384116121H. Tkaczyk1.5311611143LOct 8 · 21:45A. Kubiak2.004270A. Zmijewski1.731111113WOct 8 · 20:05A. Kubiak1.801111113Z. Nocun1.913940WOct 8 · 18:30A. Skupinski2.75108111112A. Kubiak1.40121188113
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