TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Petr Osvald vs Marek Blejchar 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA16 · Havlickuv Brod
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311117119––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:26 and never touched: 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timePetr Osvald to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Osvald above · Marek Blejchar below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-5
Point 54 set 3, 7-5 · our read held Petr Osvald at 61.9%
54 points drawn · the score is 8 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Petr Osvald 22–13 Marek Blejchar Marek Blejchar has won 13 of their 35 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 3h before this match
Blejchar beat Osvald 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 13:2661.9%Our read62.5%to break even at 1.60
short by 0.6pp62.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.60 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (58%)
Osvald
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
22-13 in 35
Osvald
Correct
gap of 9 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osvald 1639 vs Blejchar 1590
Osvald
Correct
both rated, 49 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osvald 80% vs Blejchar 60%
Osvald
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osvald 60% vs Blejchar 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Osvald +2 · Blejchar -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Osvald) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Blejchar form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsvald 1.60 / Blejchar 2.20
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Osvald)-0.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13279742
Osvald1.60
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 42 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it100% 23 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it85% 35 of 41
Blejchar2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 56 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOsvald4wins
AwayBlejchar6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBlejchar leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsvald57.1%4 of 7
AwayBlejchar100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osvald7Blejchar3n = 10Osvald took 7 of 10
S2Osvald2Blejchar8n = 10Blejchar took 8 of 10
S3Osvald4Blejchar6n = 10Blejchar took 6 of 10
S4Osvald5Blejchar2n = 7Osvald took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOsvaldBlejcharO − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match34.736.7−2.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsvaldBlejcharBasisWin rate · lifetime131 / 253 vs 320 / 64851.8%49.4%131 / 253 vs 320 / 648Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OsvaldOsvald 1.60/Blejchar 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.9%
Osvald · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Osvald won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 11 · 10:30P. Osvald47114141172M. Blejchar56911169113
WOct 11 · 06:00P. Osvald351111133M. Blejchar1953110
LOct 8 · 09:30P. Osvald19114221M. Blejchar4071111113
WOct 8 · 08:30P. Osvald4111811113M. Blejchar30811561
WSep 27 · 12:00P. Osvald4112711113M. Blejchar281011251
LSep 24 · 06:00P. Osvald4011561172M. Blejchar49911117113
WSep 19 · 06:30P. Osvald4211911113M. Blejchar36811981
LSep 11 · 20:30P. Osvald186480M. Blejchar331111113
LSep 7 · 13:01P. Osvald30812100M. Blejchar371114123
LSep 7 · 12:30P. Osvald34811691M. Blejchar3911611113
P. Osvald10
WOct 11 · 12:30L. Velicka1.9111111061P. Osvald1.8081312113WOct 11 · 11:30P. Osvald1.501111113D. Machander2.505150LOct 11 · 10:30M. Blejchar2.38911169113P. Osvald1.53114141172WOct 11 · 09:30P. Chovanec1.8781181162P. Osvald1.83115117113WOct 11 · 08:00P. Osvald2.00911119113J. Hrabec1.7311991172LOct 11 · 07:30P. Chovanec2.1051211113P. Osvald1.671110681WOct 11 · 06:00P. Osvald1.671111133M. Blejchar2.1053110LOct 8 · 09:30P. Osvald1.60114221M. Blejchar2.2071111113WOct 8 · 08:30M. Blejchar2.10811561P. Osvald1.6711811113LOct 8 · 07:30P. Osvald1.83311119112P. Chovanec1.83119411133
M. Blejchar10
LOct 11 · 12:00D. Machander1.83911811113M. Blejchar1.8311911252WOct 11 · 11:00L. Velicka2.005460M. Blejchar1.731111113WOct 11 · 10:30M. Blejchar2.38911169113P. Osvald1.53114141172LOct 11 · 09:09J. Hrabec1.28911118113M. Blejchar3.5011921132WOct 11 · 08:30M. Blejchar1.73111396113P. Chovanec2.00911111152LOct 11 · 07:00M. Blejchar2.758111071J. Hrabec1.4011912113LOct 11 · 06:00P. Osvald1.671111133M. Blejchar2.1053110WOct 8 · 09:30P. Osvald1.60114221M. Blejchar2.2071111113LOct 8 · 08:30M. Blejchar2.10811561P. Osvald1.6711811113WOct 8 · 07:00M. Blejchar2.75231111113V. Cerny1.4011114912
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