TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Lukas Velicka vs Petr Osvald 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA16 · Havlickuv Brod
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11811131012611––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:05 and never touched: 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timePetr Osvald to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Petr Osvald @ 1.80 · Won
How it is goingLukas Velicka above · Petr Osvald below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 5-10
Point 80 set 4, 5-10 · our read held Petr Osvald at 54.3%
80 points drawn · the score is 2 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Lukas Velicka 3–3 Petr Osvald Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 12:0554.3%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.3pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Osvald
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Velicka 1499 vs Osvald 1631
Osvald
Correct
both rated, 132 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Velicka 40% vs Osvald 60%
Osvald
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Velicka 50% vs Osvald 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Velicka -2 · Osvald +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Osvald) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Velicka form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVelicka 1.909 / Osvald 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Osvald)-1.3pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13275096
Velicka1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 24 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back26% 10 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Osvald1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite66% won 42 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it100% 23 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it85% 35 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeVelicka3wins
AwayOsvald3wins
3 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVelickan = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayOsvald60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Velicka1Osvald5n = 6Osvald took 5 of 6
S2Velicka4Osvald2n = 6Velicka took 4 of 6
S3Velicka3Osvald3n = 6split evenly
S4Velicka5Osvald1n = 6Velicka took 5 of 6
S5Velicka1Osvald2n = 3Osvald took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricVelickaOsvaldV − OBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match42.342.0+0.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVelickaOsvaldBasisWin rate · lifetime118 / 232 vs 130 / 25250.9%51.6%118 / 232 vs 130 / 252Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OsvaldVelicka 1.91/Osvald 1.80
Hit
What we said
54.3%
Osvald · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Petr Osvald @ 1.80 · Won
What happened
1–3
Osvald won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 11 · 19:30L. Velicka4181111113P. Osvald33118681
LAug 27 · 21:00L. Velicka4681341292P. Osvald5411111110113
WAug 27 · 19:30L. Velicka50911811113P. Osvald4511911772
WApr 24 · 13:30L. Velicka43111110113P. Osvald32961251
LApr 24 · 11:30L. Velicka42410111162P. Osvald47111276113
LApr 22 · 10:00L. Velicka322811111P. Osvald4111116133
L. Velicka10
WOct 11 · 13:01D. Machander1.40141161192L. Velicka2.65166118113LOct 11 · 11:00L. Velicka2.005460M. Blejchar1.731111113LOct 11 · 10:00D. Machander1.5011411113L. Velicka2.50911781WOct 4 · 13:30P. Chovanec2.105101181L. Velicka1.6711126113LOct 4 · 12:00M. Blejchar1.831111113L. Velicka1.838530WOct 4 · 11:00P. Chovanec1.83119791L. Velicka1.8391111113WOct 4 · 10:30L. Velicka1.801111113R. Adam1.919890WSep 27 · 09:00L. Velicka1.9111611113M. Blejchar1.80511581WSep 27 · 08:30L. Velicka1.801111113J. Hrabec1.916840LSep 27 · 07:00L. Velicka1.91123991O. Hradil1.80101111113
P. Osvald10
WOct 11 · 11:30P. Osvald1.501111113D. Machander2.505150LOct 11 · 10:30M. Blejchar2.38911169113P. Osvald1.53114141172WOct 11 · 09:30P. Chovanec1.8781181162P. Osvald1.83115117113WOct 11 · 08:00P. Osvald2.00911119113J. Hrabec1.7311991172LOct 11 · 07:30P. Chovanec2.1051211113P. Osvald1.671110681WOct 11 · 06:00P. Osvald1.671111133M. Blejchar2.1053110LOct 8 · 09:30P. Osvald1.60114221M. Blejchar2.2071111113WOct 8 · 08:30M. Blejchar2.10811561P. Osvald1.6711811113LOct 8 · 07:30P. Osvald1.83311119112P. Chovanec1.83119411133WOct 8 · 06:30V. Cerny1.80811118102P. Osvald1.91116811123
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