TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Radim Pavelka vs Tomas Janata 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA12 · Liberec
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191131315117––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:50 and never touched: 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeTomas Janata to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Radim Pavelka @ 2.20 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
How it is goingRadim Pavelka above · Tomas Janata below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 80 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Tomas Janata at 58.1%
80 points played in total.
H2H Radim Pavelka 16–22 Tomas Janata Radim Pavelka has won 16 of their 38 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pick
Sealed 19:50Sent to Pro: Radim Pavelka @ 2.20 · Won
58.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Janata
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-22 in 38
Janata
Wrong
gap of 6 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavelka 1552 vs Janata 1541
Pavelka
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavelka 60% vs Janata 20%
Pavelka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavelka 60% vs Janata 40%
Pavelka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavelka +1 · Janata -3
Janata
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Janata) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Janata form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavelka 2.20 / Janata 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Janata)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13279506
Pavelka2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 63 of 160
Down 0–1, comes back24% 21 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 44
Janata1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 104 of 168
Up 2–0, closes it89% 49 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it77% 75 of 98
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePavelka5wins
AwayJanata5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavelka71.4%5 of 7
AwayJanata100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavelka7Janata3n = 10Pavelka took 7 of 10
S2Pavelka3Janata7n = 10Janata took 7 of 10
S3Pavelka5Janata5n = 10split evenly
S4Pavelka1Janata5n = 6Janata took 5 of 6
S5Pavelka3Janata1n = 4Pavelka took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPavelkaJanataP − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.637.4−0.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavelkaJanataBasisWin rate · lifetime449 / 889 vs 438 / 82750.5%53%449 / 889 vs 438 / 827Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PavelkaPavelka 2.20/Janata 1.61
Hit
What we said
58.1%
Janata · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Radim Pavelka @ 2.20 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
What happened
3–1
Pavelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 21:30R. Pavelka164390T. Janata331111113
WSep 28 · 19:00R. Pavelka351113113T. Janata2481150
LAug 13 · 15:30R. Pavelka269890T. Janata331111113
LJul 15 · 18:00R. Pavelka291310421T. Janata45111211113
WJul 13 · 18:00R. Pavelka51119911113T. Janata4341111982
WMar 20 · 00:00R. Pavelka331111113T. Janata175570
LFeb 1 · 22:30R. Pavelka4311911482T. Janata50911811113
WFeb 1 · 19:00R. Pavelka46119114113T. Janata4481191152
WJan 30 · 17:00R. Pavelka46111176113T. Janata3873111162
LDec 29 · 10:00R. Pavelka416151191T. Janata4711178113
R. Pavelka10
WOct 11 · 19:30J. Plachy2.20411981R. Pavelka1.6111711113LOct 11 · 18:00R. Pavelka1.91711481V. Postelt1.8011611113WOct 9 · 02:58P. Fojt2.50981161R. Pavelka1.5011118113LOct 9 · 02:30R. Krejci1.671111113R. Pavelka2.105260WOct 9 · 01:00P. Fojt2.509111071R. Pavelka1.5011912113WOct 8 · 23:30R. Pavelka1.8011911113P. Zmuda1.91511791LOct 8 · 22:00R. Pavelka1.911286101V. Postelt1.80101111123LOct 8 · 13:30K. Darin1.911211113R. Pavelka1.8010830WOct 8 · 12:00R. Pavelka1.6111911113J. Dedek2.20411571WOct 8 · 11:30J. Prokupek2.2010950R. Pavelka1.611211113
T. Janata10
LOct 11 · 19:00V. Postelt2.63613116113T. Janata1.44111191192LOct 11 · 18:30T. Janata1.446710J. Plachy2.631111113LOct 9 · 16:59T. Janata1.5771111982J. Prokupek2.25118711113WOct 9 · 16:30J. Prokupek2.20911651T. Janata1.6111911113LOct 9 · 15:30T. Janata1.7311117882M. Vedmoch2.00751111113LOct 9 · 14:30M. Vesely2.201312104123T. Janata1.6111101211102WOct 5 · 21:30P. Zmuda2.10111284102T. Janata1.658101111123LOct 5 · 20:00P. Zmuda2.3881111113T. Janata1.53116671WOct 5 · 19:00K. Brozhik1.4461111962T. Janata2.63114611113WOct 5 · 18:30T. Janata1.44951112113M. Vedmoch2.63111151082
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