TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jiri Melichar vs Adam Kral 3-0 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 5 · Prague
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115117119––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:39 and never touched: 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeJiri Melichar to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Melichar above · Adam Kral below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 54 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Jiri Melichar at 64.9%
54 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Melichar 2–3 Adam Kral Jiri Melichar has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:3964.9%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 1.8pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Melichar
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melichar 1560 vs Kral 1466
Melichar
Correct
both rated, 94 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melichar 80% vs Kral 20%
Melichar
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melichar 80% vs Kral 30%
Melichar
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melichar +3 · Kral -2
Melichar
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Melichar) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kral form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelichar 1.50 / Kral 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Melichar)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13279415
Melichar1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite52% won 23 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it70% 14 of 20
Kral2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 90 of 208
Down 0–1, comes back26% 29 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMelichar2wins
AwayKral3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderKral leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelicharn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKral75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melichar1Kral4n = 5Kral took 4 of 5
S2Melichar3Kral2n = 5Melichar took 3 of 5
S3Melichar4Kral1n = 5Melichar took 4 of 5
S4Melichar3Kral2n = 5Melichar took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricMelicharKralM − KBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match41.640.0+1.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelicharKralBasisWin rate · lifetime48 / 82 vs 405 / 78958.5%51.3%48 / 82 vs 405 / 789Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.640.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MelicharMelichar 1.50/Kral 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Melichar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Melichar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 2 · 16:20J. Melichar4111712113A. Kral345111081
WAug 13 · 14:20J. Melichar4061111123A. Kral311128101
LJun 29 · 17:50J. Melichar4291111742A. Kral45118411113
LJun 29 · 15:20J. Melichar50118121182A. Kral531311108113
LJun 25 · 16:50J. Melichar35911871A. Kral3711411113
J. Melichar10
WOct 11 · 15:20J. Dvorak1.839890J. Melichar1.831111113WOct 11 · 14:50J. Kulveit1.7361271162J. Melichar2.001110113113WOct 5 · 17:59D. Sykora1.91111061182J. Melichar1.80812116113LOct 5 · 16:20D. Sykora2.1051111113J. Melichar1.67115931WOct 5 · 15:50Z. Zahradka2.5010840J. Melichar1.501211113WOct 5 · 14:50J. Melichar1.671111113J. Hendrych2.105970LOct 2 · 17:50J. Melichar1.6013811942D. Sykora2.201111711113WOct 2 · 16:20A. Kral2.255111081J. Melichar1.5711712113WOct 2 · 15:50D. Sykora1.91781161J. Melichar1.8011115113WOct 2 · 14:50J. Melichar2.1091111113J. Dvorak1.67119681
A. Kral10
LOct 11 · 15:50A. Kral2.0011911692J. Kulveit1.73511911113LOct 11 · 14:20J. Dvorak1.6771111123A. Kral2.101199101WOct 8 · 21:18D. Sykora1.361123101A. Kral3.0091111123LOct 8 · 20:50A. Kral2.50116571J. Hrncir1.5071111113LOct 8 · 19:20D. Sykora1.4011115123A. Kral2.756711101LOct 8 · 18:50M. Sulc1.449101111113A. Kral2.6311127762WOct 8 · 14:00L. Moravec3.251311631A. Kral1.3315911113LOct 8 · 13:25A. Kral1.6181170P. Chlumsky2.201113113WOct 8 · 11:55L. Moravec2.5042111182A. Kral1.50111196113LOct 2 · 16:20A. Kral2.255111081J. Melichar1.5711712113
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