TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Marcel Cmil vs Jakub Dufek Jnr 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
71114161113––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:50 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Dufek Jnr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcel Cmil above · Jakub Dufek Jnr below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 14-16
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 72 set 3, 11-13 · our read held Jakub Dufek Jnr at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Cmil 33–22 Jakub Dufek Jnr Jakub Dufek Jnr has won 22 of their 55 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:5054.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Jnr
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
33-22 in 55
Cmil
Wrong
gap of 11 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cmil 1303 vs Jnr 1353
Jnr
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cmil 20% vs Jnr 40%
Jnr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cmil 20% vs Jnr 60%
Jnr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cmil +1 · Jnr -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Jnr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCmil 1.833 / Jnr 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jnr)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13277059
Cmil1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Jnr1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCmil5wins
AwayJnr5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCmil57.1%4 of 7
AwayJnr66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cmil7Jnr3n = 10Cmil took 7 of 10
S2Cmil2Jnr8n = 10Jnr took 8 of 10
S3Cmil5Jnr5n = 10split evenly
S4Cmil6Jnr4n = 10Cmil took 6 of 10
S5Cmil2Jnr2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCmilJnrC − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.241.0+0.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCmilJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime351 / 658 vs 258 / 50753.3%50.9%351 / 658 vs 258 / 507Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JnrCmil 1.83/Jnr 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 8 · 08:00M. Cmil3958111142J. Jnr50111189113
WSep 26 · 20:59M. Cmil45118114113J. Jnr4181171142
WSep 26 · 20:00M. Cmil3711411113J. Jnr34711971
WSep 19 · 13:15M. Cmil52156911113J. Jnr49131111592
LSep 19 · 09:30M. Cmil36119791J. Jnr3851111113
LSep 8 · 20:58M. Cmil541011111392J. Jnr541271311113
WSep 8 · 20:00M. Cmil4011711113J. Jnr29511851
LAug 25 · 16:00M. Cmil3811107101J. Jnr4381211123
LJul 18 · 19:30M. Cmil29114681J. Jnr4181111113
WJul 4 · 18:45M. Cmil4281111123J. Jnr311164101
M. Cmil10
WOct 11 · 20:28M. Cmil1.44611119113J. Vrnak2.6311581152WOct 11 · 18:30J. Vrnak2.63115111142M. Cmil1.44131149113LOct 11 · 18:00P. Moulis2.25101111113M. Cmil1.57128761LOct 9 · 21:00D. Sabuka1.501111113M. Cmil2.505760LOct 9 · 20:00M. Cmil2.0059100D. Sabuka1.731111123LOct 9 · 18:30R. Slunecko1.67913911113M. Cmil2.10111111852LOct 9 · 18:00K. Polak1.57111312113M. Cmil2.256111481LOct 8 · 08:33M. Cmil1.9111581182F. Fryml1.80811119113LOct 8 · 08:00M. Cmil1.8358111142J. Jnr1.83111189113LOct 8 · 06:30J. Puk1.671112113M. Cmil2.1091090
J. Jnr10
LOct 11 · 19:00P. Moulis2.001091111113J. Jnr1.7312114692WOct 11 · 17:30J. Vrnak2.00911741J. Jnr1.7311611113LOct 9 · 12:59J. Jnr2.6395111272M. Melisek1.441111710113WOct 9 · 12:00M. Obraz2.209560J. Jnr1.611111113LOct 9 · 11:00M. Melisek1.4411117113J. Jnr2.63551151WOct 9 · 09:30J. Blazek1.57781161J. Jnr2.2511115113WOct 8 · 08:59J. Jnr1.73511119113J. Puk2.0011471192WOct 8 · 08:00M. Cmil1.8358111142J. Jnr1.83111189113WOct 8 · 07:00F. Fryml1.7310111071J. Jnr2.0012912113LOct 8 · 05:30J. Puk1.7311119133J. Jnr2.006911111
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.