TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Viktor Ivanytskyi vs Illia Fokin 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111191210115––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:52 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIllia Fokin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingViktor Ivanytskyi above · Illia Fokin below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 78 set 4, 11-5 · our read held Illia Fokin at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Viktor Ivanytskyi 10–13 Illia Fokin Viktor Ivanytskyi has won 10 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:5254.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Fokin
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-13 in 23
Fokin
Wrong
gap of 3 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ivanytskyi 1052 vs Fokin 1063
Fokin
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ivanytskyi 20% vs Fokin 80%
Fokin
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ivanytskyi 40% vs Fokin 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ivanytskyi -3 · Fokin +2
Ivanytskyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Fokin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fokin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIvanytskyi 1.833 / Fokin 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Fokin)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13276503
Ivanytskyi1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Fokin1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeIvanytskyi4wins
AwayFokin6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderFokin leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIvanytskyi80%4 of 5
AwayFokin100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ivanytskyi5Fokin5n = 10split evenly
S2Ivanytskyi4Fokin6n = 10Fokin took 6 of 10
S3Ivanytskyi4Fokin5n = 9Fokin took 5 of 9
S4Ivanytskyi4Fokin4n = 8split evenly
S5Ivanytskyi2Fokin2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricIvanytskyiFokinI − FBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.141.9−1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIvanytskyiFokinBasisWin rate · lifetime117 / 201 vs 163 / 31658.2%51.6%117 / 201 vs 163 / 316Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FokinIvanytskyi 1.83/Fokin 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Fokin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ivanytskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 24 · 04:25V. Ivanytskyi341111123I. Fokin2156100
LSep 23 · 18:25V. Ivanytskyi4781171292I. Fokin521191110113
LSep 10 · 11:25V. Ivanytskyi29611661I. Fokin4211911113
LSep 9 · 15:25V. Ivanytskyi31491171I. Fokin4211119113
LAug 21 · 13:55V. Ivanytskyi44111071152I. Fokin47912114113
WAug 14 · 17:25V. Ivanytskyi47119511113I. Fokin4471111692
LAug 11 · 05:55V. Ivanytskyi31681161I. Fokin4011117113
WAug 10 · 18:55V. Ivanytskyi51111369123I. Fokin507111111102
WJul 23 · 04:55V. Ivanytskyi4713911143I. Fokin3911115121
V. Ivanytskyi10
LOct 11 · 16:55P. Chyzh2.501211113V. Ivanytskyi1.5010950LOct 11 · 14:55V. Vasyliev1.3313117103V. Ivanytskyi3.251151181LOct 11 · 13:55V. Ivanytskyi2.251167111O. Sapuzhak1.5791111133WOct 11 · 12:55O. Maksymkiv1.6797111172V. Ivanytskyi2.10111159113LSep 24 · 10:25V. Ivanytskyi1.911111121462M. Dunas1.801371016113WSep 24 · 08:55V. Ivanytskyi1.50119711113O. Maslovskyi2.5081111792WSep 24 · 07:25V. Ivanytskyi1.57811114113Y. Shcherbak2.2511771182LSep 24 · 05:55V. Ivanytskyi2.6364120M. Treschetka1.441111143WSep 24 · 04:25V. Ivanytskyi2.001111123I. Fokin1.7356100LSep 23 · 18:25V. Ivanytskyi2.1081171292I. Fokin1.671191110113
I. Fokin10
WOct 11 · 17:25I. Fokin3.25121111113O. Sapuzhak1.33148971WOct 11 · 15:25O. Maksymkiv1.808490I. Fokin1.911111113LOct 11 · 13:25V. Vasyliev1.531161163I. Fokin2.38911851WOct 11 · 12:25P. Chyzh2.255560I. Fokin1.571111113WOct 10 · 11:25O. Maksymkiv1.6171111582I. Fokin2.20114611113WOct 10 · 09:55I. Fokin2.251113123V. Salivonchyk1.57711100LOct 10 · 07:55A. Nikolenko1.53111178113I. Fokin2.3838111192LOct 10 · 05:55M. Treschetka1.501111113I. Fokin2.507760LSep 24 · 04:25V. Ivanytskyi2.001111123I. Fokin1.7356100WSep 23 · 18:25V. Ivanytskyi2.1081171292I. Fokin1.671191110113
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